Daily write-up - Dec 9th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Huntingdon and Kelso in the UK - plus Cork and Punchestown in Ireland.

Non of the cards are packed full of quality - but there are interesting races at all 4 venues.

In fact, if you could combine the best 2 races from each card, you would have one to drool over !

Again, I had no issue finding potential tips - though choosing which ones to go with and issuing them in a way which gave you all a chance of getting on, was a bit trickier !

That said, I did manage to tip in 5 races - which is pretty good going for me !

Before I get on to them and my thoughts on the rest of the days action - just a quick update on the Naps competition in the forum.

As most of you are aware, that got under way yesterday - and there was the usual raft of day 1 winners (it happens every year - and then winners get more rare, as peoples tips get more desperate !).

9 of the 24 entrants managed to find a winning Nap - which is some going !

Pride of place went to Stephen - who Napped a 7/1 winner at Wetherby - but there are plenty hot on his heals !

If you’ve not entered yet, then there is still time to do so - but you need to act fast as you have to submit a minimum of 15 Naps before the end of the year - and the days are now ticking away…

Anyway, on to the rationale behind todays tips - plus my other thoughts on an excellent days racing…

Huntingdon

12:15

This can’t really be described as a ‘big race’ - so apologies for that - but I am prepared to make the odd exception, if I fancy something strongly and I think the market will take me tipping…

I fancy San Pedro de Senam quite strongly - and hopefully you’ve all managed to get on him at a fair price (at least 10/1).

He was actually put in quite a bit bigger last night (16/1) - and that struck me as odd, as I think he has a very good chance.

He caught my eye last time, on his seasonal debut at Fontwell, in a stronger race than todays.

He travelled nicely in that contest, until lack of fitness caught him out, up the home straight.

He still managed to finish third - and wasn’t beaten far by a couple of decent horses.

He should be straighter for that run - and has been dropped 2lb for it.

That makes him potentially very well handicapped - particularly as he has an excellent apprentice in the saddle, claiming 10lb.

I’d like to see him remain strong in the market, up to the off - but if he does, I think he will take a bit of beating…

My plan was just to put him up, but I keep on looking at the top horse, Mixchievous - and eventually decided that I had to side with him as well.

He’s trained by Venetia - and as we’ve seen over the past week, she is starting to him form.

Mixchievous has a very good record fresh - and makes his seasonal debut today.

Despite having top weight, he’s not badly handicapped - and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him go very close this afternoon.

San Pedro de Senam remains my main fancy in the race - but having the pair of them running for us at combines odds of around 6/1, strikes me as a good bet.

1:55

As you all know, I post eye catchers in the forum on a fortnightly basis - and they’ve done very well, during the past week.

That said, there are eye catchers - and then, there are EYE CATCHERS - and Sparkleandshines run at Ascot, most definitely fell into the latter category !

Firstly, it needs putting into context.

It was in a class 1 event: It was his seasonal debut - only his second run over hurdles - and his handicap debut.

He was an unconsidered 28/1 shot, against some talented and progressive rivals - and yet, he ran a monster race.
In fact, it’s hard not to think that he would just about have won, if he’d had a little more experience.

The handicapper left his mark unchanged - and he rocks up today, against some pretty moderate opposition.

He’s also running over the course and distance where he won his sole race last season - and he’s running on similar ground (hopefully !).

The only question in my mind, was what price I’d accept.
He was put in at 6/1 last night (7/1 in a place) - and that would have been great !

2pts lower this morning, and things aren’t quite so appealing.

I still wanted to tip him - but the reduced ‘value’ has seen me reduce the stake.
The trouble is, it’s a 12 runner handicap, so the ‘randomness’ is not insignificant.

You also need something in the price, because they aren’t machines !

I guess I would consider him a 3/1 shot (maybe even 5/2) - but I would hope you can all beat that.

William H Bonney and Shiroccan Role, are definite dangers.

That said, I doubt they’ve got as much in hand of their mark, as I think Sparkleandshine has.
Let’s hope I’m right !

2:25

This is the main race on the Huntingdon card - and Charbel looks a solid favourite.

He’s bounced back to his best, this season: defeating Baron Alco at Chepstow and then running Politologue close at Ascot.

That’s the best recent form in the race - and he should be ideally suited by todays test.

In short, he looks very solid - even if there is no margin in a price of 2/1.

If you are going to take him on, you need to get creative…

Harry Skelton could possibly try and steal the race from the front, on Renes Girl - and she definitely has a chance, in receipt of the mares allowance: Josses Hill also has a chance, if his breathing operation has helped him recapture his old form.

Aside from those 2 however, I struggle to see anything that could beat Charbel…

I would expect God’s Own to run well - and most likely be placed; whilst I’ll be keeping a close eye on Tea for Two, but with a view to the future, rather than for today…

Kelso

1:05 

West of the Edge looks the one to beat in this - but there is no value in a price of 4/1 in a tough looking race.

It looks to me as if he’s be primed for today, with a decent run over hurdles at Ffos Las, designed to get him spot on.

He’s not badly handicapped, on a mark just 2lb higher than when runner up in the Eider chase - and whilst I don’t see the fitting of blinkers as a big positive, I’m sure Dr Newland knows what he is doing !

A price nearer to 6/1 would seem about right to me - if you can get that, he’s worth a small play.

Of the others, then the 2 Nicky Richards horses: Looking Well and Progressive Drive, both have a chance.
I tipped the former last time, when he disappointed at Cheltenham - but this isn’t such a hot race.

Two worthy of mention at big prices, are Aubusson and Ascot de Bruyere - I wouldn’t be surprised to see either one run well.

However, it is that kind of race - which is why taking a short price on West of the Edge, has no appeal…

2:10

The final leg of the Veteran series is a bit different to all the others (I’ve no idea why).

It’s run over a trip of 2m6f - whereas the other races in the series, are run over 3 miles.

On decent ground, that means you need a slightly different type of horse - one that’s a bit quicker !

Most of the runners in todays race, are plodders.

They would be much better suited to 3 miles and mud - but not Upsilon Bleu.

In fact, he’s very effective over the bare 2 miles - though he does stay 2m4f.

In truth there is a slight doubt over his ability to get todays trip of 2m6f - but I’m hoping he’ll win on the bridle, so it won’t be an issue !

He has run over this distance once before - and he finished a very creditable second - so I am reasonably confident he’ll get home alright.

The other slight concern is with his fitness - as he’s making his seasonal debut, today.

However, he’s run well fresh in the past - and connections won’t have may better chances this season, to pick up £30K.

Provided he is fit enough to do himself justice - and his stamina lasts out - then I think he will win.

Simply, I just think he is better class than his rivals...

Band of Blood is the obvious danger - but he was half the price, this morning - and not as well handicapped.

I wouldn’t want the 2 of them jumping the last together however, as Band of Blood will have the greater stamina - but I’m hoping Upsilon Bleu will be 10 lengths clear, by that point !

Punchestown

2:00

I have to be honest, I don’t really get why Balco des Flos isn’t favourite for this - or at very least, a point shorter than he is…

He was a massively impressive winner of the Ryanair at the Cheltenham festival, last season - when he beat Un de Sceaux in a manner similar to Altior, yesterday !

It wasn’t as if that was a one-off performance, either…

On his previous outing, he had run second to Road to Respect in a Grade 1 event, over a trip that stretches him.

He’s back over his optimum distance today - and the yielding ground should be nearly perfect - yet he’s 7/2 third favourite…

The issue, of course, is his last 2 runs…

He disappointed at Aintree at the back end of last season: and didn’t fire on his seasonal debut at Down Royal, last month.

However, those 2 runs need putting into context.

The Aintree run was at the end of a very long season - having just peaked at Aintree: whilst I’m always prepared to forgive a below par seasonal debut effort.

I expect Balco des Flos to be back to his peak today - and if he is, then his rivals are going to struggle to beat him.
Min is race favourite - and he beat Balco des Flos at Aintree, last season.
However, the betting that day suggested there shouldn’t have been much between the pair - and Min is making his seasonal debut today.

I would struggle to choose between the pair – but at even money and 7/2, choosing was quite easy !

Shattered Love is the other runner worthy of serious consideration.

She was a very impressive winner of last seasons JLT.

She ran well enough on her seasonal debut at Down Royal - and in receipt of 7lb today, has to be a danger.

I would certainly expect her to run a big race - I’m just hopeful that over this trip, Balco des Flos will be a bit too quick for her…

The other 2 are both decent animals: but The Storyteller shouldn’t really be good enough: whilst Edwulf, wants further.

This really looks a 3 horse race - and 7/2 about the horse I think should be favourite, is a very good bet.

Cork

2:15 

I think it is worth taking a small risk on High School Days in this…

In theory, she is held on the form of her chasing debut at Galway, by both Dawn Shadow and Forge Meadow.

However, she ran a perfectly respectable race that day - and I would expect her to improve significantly for it.

It’s interesting to note that she was sent off at just 9/2 that day - with Forge Meadow and Dawn Shadow, disputing favouritism at around 2/1.

She’s a 20/1 shot in todays race - with Forge Meadow 5/2 and Dawn Shadow 7/1 - and that disparity, looks wrong to me…

High School Days is the youngest of the trio, at just 5 - and should therefore still have plenty of improvement in her.

She ran to a fair level over hurdles, last season and was rated 136, when sent off third favourite for the mares novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
She ran poorly that day - and again at Fairyhouse and Punchestown, but she may have been feeling the effects of a long, hard season.

There was certainly plenty of promise in her Galway run - and I am quite hopeful she will be able to build on that and significantly outrun her price.

Forge Meadow is probably the one to beat - even though she is behind Camelia de Cotte in the market.
That one has been priced up primarily on connections - and doesn’t have the form of Forge Meadow (even though she does have potential).

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Hunt 12:15 San Pedro de Senam 0.5pt win 12/1

Hunt 12:15 Mixchievous 0.5pt win 12/1

Hunt 1:55 Sparkleandshine 1pt win 4/1

Kels 2:10 Upsilon Bleu 1.5pt win 5/1

Punc 2:00 Balko des Flos 2pt win 7/2

Cork 2:15 High School Days 0.5pt win 20/1

Mentions

Hunt 2:25 Charbel (P )

Kels 1:05 West of the Edge (O )