Daily write-up - Dec 26th

There are no less than 10 NH Meetings taking place today, across the length and breadth of the UK and Ireland.

Before I start on the days racing however, just a quick word of thanks, to everyone who has completed the survey which I issued on Sunday...

The response rate has been phenomenal (over 80%) - which I think reflects both on the level of engagement that you all have with the service (which is nice to know !): and the fact that you all see this as an issue - or at least, potential issue (which is understandable).

As I said when I issued, I don’t think there are any magical solutions - but I do have a couple of ideas which I believe will improve the situation for some of you.

I was hoping to be able to implement them for today - but time has caught up with me, so they will have to wait until the New Year.

I’ll also look to feedback more generally at that time…

One thing the survey did confirm, was the need for me to focus on the ‘big’ races (due to the greater liquidity).

I’ve therefore focused my efforts today, on the 3 biggest meetings: at Kempton, Wetherby and Leopardstown.

I did look through all the other meetings - but didn’t find anything which warranted tipping.

If anyone has a particular interest in any of the other meetings/races, feel free to post on the forum - and if I have a view, I will respond (time permitting).

In terms of tips, then I’ve ended up with 4 on the day (across 3 races).

That’s lighter than I would have expected - but there is plenty of uncertainty today (with regards to ground and runners), so I’m not uncomfortable about easing us into this period, gently….

Here is the rationale for the tips - along with my thoughts on the other ‘big’ races, from the 3 main meetings…

Kempton

12:50

This is a fascinating race to open up proceedings - and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised, whatever the outcome…

As a consequence, the one of most interest, has to be the outsider, Fly to Mars.
He was put in at 50/1 - but even the current 25/1 seems a bit big, considering his connections and potential.

That said, it’s complete guesswork - and he could run very well but still finish last !

If price was no consideration, I would side with Thomas Darby, who I think has a good chance of reversing Ascot form with Didtheyleaveuoutto on 3lb better terms, for a head beating.

However, it’s impossible to know whether that is the best form in the race…

Consequently, it has to be a race to watch - and learn from…

1:20

This is another impossible race to call with any confidence…

Lough Derg Spirit and Glen Forsa, head the market - and a decent case can be made for them both…

That said, I could also make a fair case for Turtle Wars and Dell Oro.

However, all 4 of those named are currently trading at under 8/1 - so there is minimal margin in their prices…

At bigger odds, Awake at Midnight and Glen Rocco, are the two who appeal most.

The former won a competitive race at Chepstow, before running reasonably well at Exeter.

He represents Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson - and a price of 14/1, holds some appeal.

Glen Rocco finished a distant third to Warthog at Sandown last time - but the winner may have stole the race that day.

He had Turtle Wars back in fifth - but he was badly impeded early on, so the form can’t be taken literally.

That said, I think Glen Rocco is a fair type - and would expect him to run well (maybe place) today.

However, that’s 6 horses who I’ve already given a favourable mention to - and I could make half cases for a couple more.

Time to move on…

1:55

This is as strong a novice chase as I can recall seeing, outside of the Cheltenham festival…

The top 5 in the betting would be short priced favourites for almost any other novice chase run this season - so it’s clearly a race of some depth…

When that happens, you need to look not only at basic ability - but also at the suitability of the test - as non of the runners is going to outclass its opponents…

In terms of pure ability, then Santini is probably the best horse in the race - but I’m not sure he should be favourite.

He’s a big, old fashioned chasing type - and I wonder how well suited he will by the relatively sharp Kempton track and relatively quick ground…

Conversely, whilst Bags Groove is possibly the least talented of the 5 market leaders - I think todays test will suit him perfectly,

He’s a quick, accurate jumper - and with Noel Fehily dictating the fractions, I can see him getting into a rhythm up front and being very hard to pass…

I think it’s worth a small bet that he won’t get passed - but if he over hauled, then I’m hoping La Bague au Roi will be the one who gets to him…

She’s the only mare in the race - and as a consequence, receives 7lb from all of her rivals.

On official ratings, she’s not 7lb inferior to any of them - which makes her the most likely winner !

Obviously, it’s not quite that simple: but I do think she has the form to go very close - and will be well suited by both track and trip.

I would expect her to settle in behind Bags Groove - and hopefully deliver a telling challenge up the home straight…

I’ve nothing major against either of the other 2 ‘big guns’ - The Worlds End and Topofthegame.

I’m just not convinced that the former is quite as good as the horses he faces today: and whilst Topofthegame might be - he still strikes me as quite immature…

2:30

A bare 2 miles, around Kemptons relatively quick circuit, on good ground, is not the the test that Buveur Dair wants…

As a consequence, he could be vulnerable today…

However, he is clearly the best horse in this race - an official rating, by at least 20lb.

That’s a very big gap for one of his rivals to close - and in all probability, non of them will be up to it.

Ofcourse, that assumes he gets reasonable luck - and that Barry Geraghty doesn’t mess up tactics - which is why you always need something in a price…

In terms of tactics, then the presence of Global Citizen should work in Buveur Dairs favour…

He was very impressive when winning a grade 2 novice event last season, over todays course and distance.

He went from the front that day - and none of his rival could get to him.

I suspect the same tactics will be deployed today - but that will just mean that Buveur Dair has something to aim at - and in all probability, he will run him down between the final 2 flights…

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Global Citizen hang on for second place - though I suspect that will depend on how well David Bass judges the fractions.

If he goes too fast, that will improve the chances of If the Cap Fits (as he will be staying on late): whilst if he gets the pace ‘right’, he might find Verdana Blue is a bit too good for him (in addition to Buveur Dair !).

His best chance will be to dictate a slow pace - and then try to steal the race from the home turn.

Even them I suspect Buveur Dair will get to him (unless Barry finds himself too far out of his ground) - but Global Citizen could certainly finish second.
All this said, when race analysis ends up pace guessing, my inclination is to not get involved !

3:05

A tremendous edition of the King George, provides the feature of the day - and indeed, the whole festive period !

I’m amazed to see Waiting Patiently disputing favouritism with Might Bite.

I don’t dispute the horses ability - but I can’t recall a horse every wining a King George its seasonal debut…

I also can’t recall any horse finishing last on it’s previous run (as Might Bite did) - so with significant question marks over the 2 markets leaders, it could be argued that this is a race to get involved with.

The trouble is, there are significant question marks over all of the runners…

Will Native River handle the track ?
Will Politologue stay the trip ?

Will Bristol de Mai perform away from Haydock ?

Is Thistlecrack too old ?

It’s actually possible to make half a case for Clan des Obeaux - particularly as he’s still only 6 - but he is well held by 3 of todays rivals on his run last time, so you have to get creative with him…

If forced off the fence, I would side with Politologue.

He’s unproven over 3 miles - but stays 2m5f well.

His recent form is very strong - and he seems to be improving.

He’s also a very economical jumper of a fence…

A lot will depend on STD getting him to settle in the race - but if he is able to do that, then I think he’s the one to beat.

He’s half tempting at 6/1 (if you can get that price) - but I’ll probably just watch what should be an enthralling race…

3:40

I think The Sweeney is worth siding with in this…

He was an impressive winner of a similar race at Wincanton in April, before disappointing a little on his next 2 starts.

He was then put away for the summer, before returning at Kempton last month, in a better contest than todays.

He ran a nice race that day, although no match for an impressive winner…

That was his first run since undergoing wind surgery - and it is often the second run that sees the improvement in form.

It is also interesting to note that The Sweeney has blinkers applied today for the first time - which suggests connections mean business…

In terms of his opponents, then Ballyandy and Erick le Rouge are the obvious ones to fear.
The former is dropping in class, having struggled over fences: Whilst the latter is stepping up in grade, but appears to be improving fast.

Both have a chance - but the market was wise to them…

I also think that Penn Lane has a chance, even though todays test may be insufficient for him…

All this said, I think the chances of The Sweeney are as good as anything else in the race - which is why he had to be a bet at the early prices…

Wetherby

1:35

I was half tempted by Vendor in this.

He’s a horse who I’ve followed for a number of years (and tipped a few times !) - and he caught my eye running on strongly in the closing stages, at Haydock on Saturday…

To be honest, I’m a bit surprised to see him out again just 4 days later - particularly as he’s had issues with his legs in the past.
Connections must believe he will be up to the challenge - and if he is, then I think he will run very well.
Certainly, he is handicapped to just about win - and is clearly in good heart.

My main issue with him, is todays trip.

He may have developed a bit more stamina over the past 2 years - but prior to that, I don’t think he stayed 2m3f.

I guess he could get way with it today, if the race isn’t truly run - but if it is, then I think he will struggle to get home…

It won’t help him that Willie Boy is in the race - and wearing cheek pieces for the first time.

He likes to front run regardless - and the pieces will almost certainly ensure he makes it a good pace.
That could be his downfall as well - if he is too keen in the early stages…

All this could leave the way clear for Get on the Yaeger to repeat his success in the race, of 12 months ago.

He’s having his first run of the season - but reappears following a wind op and I’ll be very surprised if Dan Skelton doesn’t have him spot on for the race.

2:10

I really did think that I had found a good bet in this, when Allysson Monterg was installed 14/1 outsider of the field…

Maybe not too surprisingly, that price was soon picked up on - and he was 8/1 this morning, by the time I could issue.

However, I think that could still be value, as I think quite a strong case can be made for him.

He’s relatively unexposed over fences - with his 5 runs yielding 2 wins.

Furthermore, 2 of his defeats were in races where he stood little chance (the grade 1 RSA chase and the Ladbroke trophy); whilst he ran well enough in the other race, over a trip which would have been a minimum distance for him…

He will be well suited by todays 3 mile trip in soft ground.

In truth, the softer the ground, the better - so any rain today, will be a definite bonus…

All of his rivals are more exposed over fences than he is - so shouldn’t have the same scope for improvement.

Wakanda is favourite, returned to fences after a fair seasonal debut over hurdles.

His handicap mark is dropping - but his current mark still only looks reasonable…

Lake View Lad and Captain Chaos fought out the finish of the rehearsal chase at Newcastle, last time - but both have risen in the handicap on the back of their efforts that day… 

In short, there is nothing in the race to be particularly fearful of - so if Allysson Monterg is able to put in the performance I believe him capable of, he could prove tough to beat.

Leopardstown

1:10

I did consider getting involved in this race, because I don’t think the market leaders - Coeur Sublime and Chief Justice - set an overly high standard…

They fought out the finish to a grade 3 race at Fairyhouse last time, with the latter narrowly getting the better of things.

It should again be close between the pair - I just feel they could both be beatable.

The problem is finding one to beat them…

The obvious ones are the 2 Willie Mullins runners: La Sorelita and Maze Runner.
The market favours the former - but she is making her Irish debut and I would prefer to side with Maze Runner (who can be backed at 14/1).
The other one that interests me, is Rocky Blue.
He’s an even bigger price - 25/1 in a place - but I’m sure he can outrun those odds, assuming he builds on a promising hurdling debut at Punchestown.

That said, there is too much guesswork to get involved ‘officially’ - though I might be tempted by a small unofficial investment on them both !

2:20

I’m not a massive fan of Mengli Khan - so I was half tempted to take him on in this…

He was put in at even money - but that price hasn’t proved popular and he can now be backed at 6/4.

Even that, holds limited appeal - though in truth, he probably only faces a couple of rivals capable of beating him and they are the second and third favourites: Voix de Reve and Le Richebourg…
Of the 2, I would prefer the chances of Le Richebourg.
He ran better than I expected last time, when runner up in the grade 1 Drinmore chase.

He drops back half a mile in trip today - but I think he should have the pace to cope.
He will also get his preferred decent ground - so could be hard to beat.

At last nights 5/1, he was definitely tempting. However he has been backed in to 10/3 this morning and that’s a more accurate reflection of his chance.

There may be a small margin in his price - but with a niggling concern regarding the trip, I don’t think he quite warrants supporting.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Kemp 1:55 La Bague au Roi 1pt win 7/1

Kemp 1:55 Bags Groove 0.5pt win 5/1

Kemp 3:40 The Sweeney 0.5pt win 14/1

Weth 2:10 Allysson Monterg 1pt win 8/1

Mentions

Kemp 12:50 Fly to Mars (S )

Kemp 3:05 Politologue (O )

Weth 1:35 Get on the Yaegar (O )

Leop 1:10 Rocky Blue (S ) & Maze Runner (S)

Leop 2:20 Le Richeburg (P )