Daily write-up - Dec 29th

There are 5 NH meetings today: at Newbury, Doncaster and Kelso in the UK - plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

The volume might still be there, meetings-wise - but the days fixtures are far more manageable than those on the 26^th and 27^th…

The meetings at Kelso and Limerick aren’t too bad - but it was an easy decision to concentrate on the other 3.

Better than that, there were only 3 or 4 races of interest, on the cards at Newbury, Doncaster and Leopardstown - so I was able to focus on a total of about 10 races, which is an ideal number, to go looking for tips...

My only concern with the day, is that there are a lot of strong looking favourites.

Obviously I could side with them - but non look completely bomb proof - and all look short enough in the betting.

Consequently, I’ve chosen to take on the ones which either look the most vulnerable - or the most under-priced !

I’ve ended up with 5 tips on the day - and, unsurprisingly in the circumstances, they are all at decent odds.

Let’s hope one or two of them can upset the apple cart !

Here’s my rationale for the tips - along with my other thoughts.

Newbury

1:50

I think it is worth taking a small risk on Knight in Dubai in this…

He returns to hurdles today, having fallen on his chasing debut at Cheltenham in October.

He was going very well at the time, but mis-judged the fourth last and paid the penalty…

The fact he’s not been seen for 2 months since, is a slight concern - and this could be a case of re-building confidence, so I don’t want to go in too heavy.
However, based on his run in the Leamington novice hurdle at Warwick in January, he has a very good chance.

He finished third in that Grade 2 contest, behind Mr Whipped and Paisley Park.

The winner is set to take high rank amongst this seasons novice chasers; whilst the runner up is vying for favouritism in the stayers hurdle.

Knight in Dubai gave them both a run for their money - and yet gets to run today off a mark of 135.
That makes him potentially very well handicapped…

He didn’t do so well on his 2 subsequent runs last season - though one of them was at the Cheltenham festival.

In the other, at Market Rasen, he appeared not to finish his race, so it was interesting that he had a breathing op over the summer.

We cant be sure that has worked, because he hadn't been put under pressure when he fell at Cheltenham - but if it has, then we could see a different horse today.
Clearly, he comes with risks - and he faces some tough opposition.

I suspect the betting close to the off will reveal the situation with him - but if he is relatively strong in the market, I would expect him to go very close.

2:25

This strikes me as quite an open race, in which most of the runners have a chance - so at a big price, I think it is worth taking a small risk on Hey Bill…

He’s already run twice this season – and hasn’t shown too much on either occasion.

First time out, he was well beaten at Ludlow: and whilst he ran better on his most recent outing at Sandown, he was beaten, when he unshipped his rider at the second last.

However, he did perform better on his most recent outing - and as a result of those 2 efforts, his handicap mark is now down to the one he won from, at the back end of last season.

As a second season novice, he still has scope for improvement - so assuming those 2 runs, have put him spot on, I would expect a much better showing this afternoon.

It’s interesting that he took a few runs to reach peak fitness last season - which also occurred around this time of year.

It’s also interesting that he’s Keilan Woods only ride on the card…

I don’t want to oversell his chance - because he’s certainly not a rock solid selection.

That said, I don’t think he’s a 25/1 shot either against a field where nothing particularly stands out.
Let’s call him a value bet :)

3:00

Instinctively, I feel that Champ has been put in too short here, at 11/8.

With his name - and his connections - he’s always likely to be over-bet.

More than that, whilst in some ways, it was hard not to be impressed with the way he won last time - it was also a bit worrying…

That was in a handicap over todays course - and he pulled for head throughout.

It says much for his ability, that he was still able to win - but simply, stepping up in class, if he does the same thing today, I’ll be surprised if he comes home in front…

The trouble is deciding what to take him on with.

All 6 of his opponents can be given a chance - and there is a fair amount of guesswork required with most of them.

I was very tempted by Brewin Upastorm - though I suspect he is another who is priced up on reputation (though his reputation may prove to be warranted !).

However, I instead opted to side with Alsa Mix.

Arguably, she has the strongest credentials in the race.

She is unbeaten in 3 runs under rules - and won a grade 2 contest, by 3 lengths, last time out…

She doesn’t have the sexy profile of a few of her rivals - or unlimited potential - but she does have form in the book.

Her price of 10/1 is almost certainly too big - but that’s because we live in a world where potential is valued more than achievement !

Of the others, then Coolanly, also has some decent form - but he also has limitations; Kateson has been very impressive in 2 wins over hurdles - but probably wants softer ground; whilst Getaway Trump was impressive last time - and seems well regarded by Paul Nicholls - but has still got a lot to prove.

Alsa Mix is definitely the most sensible selection to beat the favourite - though I’ll probably cover stakes on Brewin Upastorm, as I have a feeling that he could be very good…

3:35

In some respects, it’s quite hard to take on Wenyerreadyfreddie in this, because he’s been really impressive, in winning his 2 most recent starts.

However, if you are a form student (and I am) - and a value bettor (and I most certainly am !), then you have to oppose him with De Rasher Counter…

The 2 horses met on their seasonal debuts at Uttoxeter in October and ended up filling the places behind Lil Rockerfeller.

Wenyerreadyfreddie won their private battle by 15 lengths - but is no less than 15lb worse off with Da Rasher Counter today…

Based on a strict interpretation of pounds and lengths, that weight swing should see the 2 of them cross the line virtually together, this afternoon.

Obviously, it’s unlikely to work out that way - but it’s a good place to start when trying to solve the race.

You can actually argue a case for either horse to come out on top, today.

Clearly Wenyerreadyfreddie is improving and in top form; however, De Rasher Counter probably could have finished closer to him at Uttoxeter (he wasn’t ridden out at the end of the race) - and he’s had excuses for his 2 subsequent poor runs…

Wenyerreadyfreddie is the safer option - but at a fifth of the price, is he the better bet..?

On balance, I felt it worth siding with De Rasher Counter.

He was very decent over hurdles last season - and his run behind Santini and Black Op at Cheltenham in January, suggests he is well handicapped off a mark of 133 today.

He will need to bounce back from his 2 recent poor runs: but he was hampered in the first of them - and going the wrong way round last time.

In short, there were reasons for him under-performing.

If he gets everything right today, and returns to his Uttoxeter form, then I would expect him to give Wenyerreadyfreddie a real fight.

Doncaster

1:30

I’m struggling to see beyond the favourites in any of the main Doncaster races and Station Master looks to be the one to beat in this…

He’s finished second on both of his outings this season: to Its a Sting at Uttoxeter and The Young Master at Cheltenham - and both of those are very solid pieces of form.

He’s handicap mark hasn’t moved a great deal - so unless he is unlucky and bumps into another one today, there must be every chance that he’ll be able to go one better and get his head in front…

Whilst I don’t think he’ll be up to winning, old favourite, Valadom is interesting in his first time visor.

He’s likely to go from the front and should make a good in running trade.

I’ll be a bit surprised if he can fend off station Master up the home straight, however…

2:05

I would have been very tempted by Lady Buttons in this, if I could have got 2/1 - however 6/4 was the best price ever available and that strikes me as about right.

On official ratings, she is just about the best horse in the race - and is clearly in very good form.

I could also see the race being run to suit her (or rather not suit her rivals), as Renes Girl, Drinks Interval and Atlanta Ablaze, all like to front run.

They look to be her main rivals today - and at least one of them is likely to be inconvenienced by how the race unfolds…

The biggest concern with Lady Buttons today, is the trip.

She has been brilliant over 2 miles - but is unproven over todays 2m4f test.

I think she’ll cope with it - but you would need a bit in the price, to compensate for the risk.

In the circumstances, I just don’t think that 6/4 is quite a big enough to warrant an involvement.

3:15

It’s quite easy to make a case for Enniscoffey Oscar in this - but whilst I think him the most likely race winner, he’s not one I’m inclined to support…

He’s back over hurdles today, following a couple of disappointing runs over fences.

If you completely ignore those 2 runs and judge him purely on his hurdles form from last season, then he has a very good chance.

He won twice over todays course - with the second of those wins coming in a grade 2 event.

On the back of that run, he was rated 142 - and whilst he didn’t run as well in 3 subsequent runs last season, he didn’t run too badly either.

Therefore off a mark of 135 today, back at his favourite venue, he has to be of interest.

However, that does all assume he’s the same horse as last season - which may or may not be the case…

Ultimately it depends on how you view his 2 runs this season: has the issue purely been the fences - or is he not as good as he was 12 months ago..?

To an extent, you pay your money and make your choice - but at 3/1, I don’t think the benefit justifies the risk.

If he doesn’t perform then Commodore Barry looks the one most likely to take advantage - but he’s the second favourite.

All in all, a race just to watch…

Leopardstown

1:55

The first of 2 grade 1 races on the card, Delta Work looks very much the one to beat in this.

He was a good hurdler last season - winning the Pertemps final at the Cheltenham festival as well as finishing second in a grade 1 novice event at Punchestown.

He’s looked just as good over fences this season: Winning a beginners chase at Down Royal in November and then following up in the Grade 1 Drinmore chase at Fairyhouse.

He beat Le Richeburg that day - and he won a grade 1 at Leopardstown on Thursday…

As impressive as all that is, I’m not convinced it justifies Delta Work being a 1/2 shot today.

For a start, this is a novice chase - and consequently more likely to get it’s share of spills and thrills than most races !

Also, it is only his third run over fences - and we are yet to see how he copes with making a mistake

He’s definitely the most likely winner - but this game is about finding the best bet - not the most likely winner (if you want the latter, just back all the favourites !)

Mortal strikes me as the best bet in the race.

He wasn’t anywhere near as good as Delta Work over hurdles - but it could be a different story over fences.

He made his chasing debut at Fairyhouse at the beginning of December and managed to win a very hot beginners chase.

The horse he beat that day was Any Second Now - and he finished fifth in the Paddy Power Chase on Wednesday.

Using him as a measure, Mortal ran to a rating of around 142 that day - which is 10lb shy of the level reached by Delta Work.

However, it was his first run over fences, so it’s reasonable to think he can improve a fair bit.
Whether he can improve sufficiently to beat Delta Work, remains to be seen - but at the respective prices, I think he is worth a small risk.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Newb 1:50 Knight in Dubai 0.5pt win 10/1

Newb 2:25 Hey Bill 0.5pt win 25/1

Newb 3:00 Alsa Mix 0.5pt win 10/1

Newb 3:35 De Rasher Counter 0.5pt win 10/1

Leop 1:55 Mortal 0.5pt win 9/1

Mentions

Donc 1:30 Station Master (P )

Donc 2:05 Lady Buttons (P )

Donc 3:15 Enniscoffey Oscar (S )