I
have to admit that today was a tough one…
Small,
uncompetitive fields made it difficult to find bets during the first month of
the season - but that wasn’t
the issue today.
There
were some decent fields - and I liked some of the horses I found - but so too,
did plenty of others !
Therefore
this morning, it was extremely hard for me to find anything to tip, at a
‘value’
price.
When
that happens, I have 3 choices: go for something I don’t fancy as much, at a
decent price: take a minimum price on something I do fancy; or opt out of the
race all together…
I
used all 3 tactics this afternoon - and whilst, maybe unsurprisingly, I didn’t
get all the calls right - I did get at least one right, and the net result was a
winning afternoon…
The
one I got most obviously right, was Lady Buttons…
I
wanted a bit more than the 10/3 on offer this morning - but accepted that was
probably about the right price, about the most likely winner of the race, so I
took it.
And
thankfully she rewarded my decision by romping home in the finale at
Newbury.
Watching
the race, she never looked like losing (and I mean never !), however, I suspect
she got that bit of ‘luck’ which I often talk about.
Forest
Bihan fell at the water jump, bringing down Baby King: Bigmatre made a bad
mistake and was pulled up; and Space Oddity also fell.
Ultimately,
Lady Buttons was left with very little to beat - though she did do it
emphatically, and I suspect she would still have won, even without all of the
incidents…
On
the flip side, things didn’t go so well for the days other big tip,
Sunnytahliateigan.
All
of the non runners resulted in a more tactical race - and I don't think that
suited him.
In
fairness, he may have lost regardless, but the race ended up as something of a
lottery - and his wasn’t the number that was called out !
I
won’t give up on him just yet - and he’ll be a bigger price next
time...
Mr
Monochrome was sent off a bigger price than I expected at Bangor - and in a
class 4 race, that’s rarely a good thing !
With
his connections and profile, I didn’t see it coming - but thankfully experience
encouraged me not to go in heavy.
He
was backed down to 3/1 in the early exchanges - but was out to 6/1 at the off (8
on BF).
He
was quickly a lot bigger in running - and just never featured.
I’ve
no idea what was going on - but I won’t be rushing to tip in a class 4 race
again – eye-catcher or not !!
The
days 2 others tips were both speculative stabs - and in fairness they both ran
reasonably well…
Vaziani
finished fifth behind Champ at Newbury - and looks like one who will continue to
progress throughout the season (possibly when running over even
further).
Flying
Angel didn’t get home in the Ladbroke - but he ran a fair race, showing up well
until his jumping let him down.
Given
a more suitable test, he looks capable of picking up the winning thread
again…
As
for the days Mentions:
At
Newbury, Kilbricken Storm ran disappointingly behind the very impressive
Santini.
The
winner really did look the real deal - expect to be hearing plenty more of him,
over the next few months.
Kayf
Adventure and Mont Des Avaloirs both ran reasonable races - but ultimately
justified my decision not to tip them !
And
it was a similar story with Ballydine and Bishops Road a Newcastle…
Finally,
Samcro did his very best to run the finish out of Buveur Dair - but the Champion
just cruised past him on the run to the last.
It
was quite a sight to see - and surely spelt the end of Samcros time over hurdles
(which I actually think, will be a good thing).
Certainly,
based on today, it would take some imagination to see him reversing the form
with Buveur Dair in the Champion hurdle, at Cheltenham, in March…
TVB.
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