Daily write-up - Dec 22nd

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Ascot, Haydock & Newcastle in the UK - plus Thurles in Ireland.

The final days racing before Christmas - and with an absolute glut of racing scheduled for the 4 days following, it’s maybe not too surprising that things are a bit quiet.

Certainly, there is little of interest at either Newcastle or Thurles - but Ascot and Haydock both put on decent cards.

The main factor for consideration today, is the state of the ground.

The rain has arrived with a vengeance over the past week and the ground at both courses, is edging towards heavy.

We could see that for ourselves at Ascot yesterday - and I suspect it will be just the same (if not worse !) at Haydock.

I’ve ended up with tips in 6 races.

It wasn’t hard to find horses I wanted to tip - however, the markets are so switched on, finding a price edge, is a real challenge (and we always need a bit in the price !).

Issuing the tips is also tricky - and if I can find time, I intend to create a survey, to try and get a better feel for how people back the tips (so I can look to optimise how and when I send them out).

Anyway, that’s for another day - for today, we have the rationale for the tips plus my thoughts on the days other big races…

Ascot

1:50

I must admit, Magic Saint is a borderline call in this…

He was an eye catcher last time out, when he made his UK debut at Haydock.

He travelled really well in that race - but didn’t get home.

Whether that was because his stamina gave out - or because he needed the run - I’m not sure - but hopefully it was one of those reasons !

He’s back today, with the benefit of that run under his belt - and over 2 furlongs less.

He also gets really soft ground - so I suspect these are his perfect conditions.

If he is beaten today, there won’t be any excuses !

The trouble is, he faces a host of potentially dangerous rivals.

That said, they each have a question mark over them - whereas he doesn’t…

Janika is making his UK debut - and his French form doesn’t look quite as good to me, as that of Magic Saint.

Hells Kitchen is a potentially huge talent - but he takes a lot of controlling - and he will need to dominate the race, if he is to win it.
That won't be easy, up against Royal Regatta and Janika - both of whom also like to front run.

De Dollar Man is probably the most solid of Magic Saints rivals - but he does seem to have limitations.

Of the outsiders, then Gardefort is definitely the one I’m most wary of.
I tipped him last time, on his seasonal debut - but he couldn’t get in to the race that day.

Maybe he needed the run, in which case he could be very dangerous today.

I could have had an official saver on him - but it’s not a race that I want to get in deep on. I’ll therefore just back him to get my stake back, in case Magic Saint doesn’t manage to deliver.

2:25

I’m hoping that the very soft ground provides the key angle into this race - with Sam Spinner and Agrapart, the 2 who are both guaranteed to act on it - and also get the trip…

The former was a really impressive winner of the corresponding race, 12 months ago - and if he can repeat that form, he will win again today.

However, he’s disappointed on his 3 subsequent runs - and whilst there has been a   plausible reason on each occasion, there won’t be an excuse if he’s beaten today.

The application of first time cheek pieces is a little concerning, as it suggests connections think his mind may not be on the job…

However, if they do get him to re-focus, then in what are his ideal conditions, he is very much the one to beat…

That said, Agrapart comes with fewer risks - and is therefore the main bet in the race.

He too will have ideal conditions - and his defeat of Wholestone at Cheltenham in January, confirmed he is up to this class.

He ran a nice race on his seasonal debut, behind that horse at Aintree, where both trip and ground wouldn’t have been ideal.

That should have put him spot on for today and I would expect him to reverse the form with Unowhatimeanharry (who finished just ahead of him).
Nicky Henderson sets a poser by running 3 in the race.
All 3 are making their seasonal debuts - and are unproven over the trip, on todays ground.

Call me Lord and Soul Emotion both have huge potential - but I can’t see them getting beaten up, in order to win todays race.

With the ground likely to be too soft for Paisley Park - and the other 4 not quite up to this class, the race does look there for either Sam Spinner (if back to his best) - or Agrpart, to take advantage.
Let’s hope that’s how it pans out !

3:00

With doubts of one form or another, over every runner, this races looks a bit too tricky to get involved with…

Gold Present is favourite - but he’s far from guaranteed to handle the very soft ground. Thomas Patrick will have no issue with the ground - but he needs to bounce back from a poor run last time, in the Ladbroke Trophy.
Full Glass should handle the ground - but he’s unproven over the trip (and there’s a question mark over his jumping); whilst Benatar should also cope with the ground - but is unproven over the trip and will need to settle better than he often does, if he is to get home…

Jammin Masters is potentially interesting - but he lacks experience for a race of this nature - and that’s not really factored in to his price; whilst Otago Trail could bounce on the back of a big comeback run, after along absence - and he also looks harshly handicapped.

Flying Angel is definitely the most interesting of those at bigger prices - though he’s running from a mark 4lb higher than when well beaten in the Ladbroke Trophy.

It is possible that his last run came a bit too quickly - so he could have a valid excuse for under-performing…

There are even bigger question marks over all the others - hence my reticence to get involved !

If I was to play in the race, it would probably be with Flying Angel - though he is risky.

I like Jamin Masters best, of those at the head of the market market - but I would want a bigger price than 7/1 to take a risk on him handling the rise in grade.

3:35

There are 21 runners in this race and it’s no exaggeration to say that I could make a case for at least 15 of them !

That would include the 2 official eye catchers: Mr Antolini and Cyrus Darius.

Both should relish the under-foot conditions - but Mr Antolini is creeping up the handicap (and is already quite exposed): whilst I’m just not sure that todays test will suit Cyruis Darius (I would prefer him in a smaller field).

I wouldn’t put anyone off having a small wager on both (Cyrus could be a decent back to lay in-running, as he’s a really strong traveller) - but I’m going with Flying Angel, as the bet in the race….

He’s another one who I’ve sided with a few times before - and I’m pretty convinced that he has a decent race in him (hopefully todays !).

Certainly, he is very well handicapped: he won the 2017 Fred Winter hurdle from a mark 1lb higher than he races from today - and I’d be pretty sure he’s improved since then (he’s still only 5).
Furthermore, he also has a decent 7lb claimer in the saddle today…

He should appreciate the likely strong pace (he can be keen in his races) - and whilst I’m not completely sure about him handling the ground, his record suggests he should be fine.

There is a question mark over his recent form (which is why he’s the price he is) - but, to be honest, I think it’s impossible to say what kind of form he is in.

2 of his 3 runs this season have been in small field chases (so totally irrelevant, so far as today race is concerned): whilst he was effectively brought down, in the other one…

Clearly he is no certainly - but I think he has as good a chance as any - and a better chance than most.
Therefore, he has to be worth a small play at a decent price….

Haydock

1:35

I have to be honest, I wanted to tip Ubaltique in this…

I tipped him 12 months ago, when he won the corresponding race - and everyone knows that this is his time of year (and his course - and his ground !)

The trouble is, because everyone knows, you can’t get a price on him.

He was a 4/1 shot at 9:00 this morning - and in a competitive 9 runner race, that is too short…

That’s particularly true, because based on last years race, there is nothing between him an Uno Valeroso.

In fact, the latter looked most likely to win that day - but dreadful jumps at the final 2 fences cost him dearly.

Despite being 4lb out of the handicap today, he’s 1lb better off with Ubaltique.

There should be little between them based on that form - so at 3 times the price, Uno Valerosso had to be the bet.

Even more so, because he shaped with distinct promise on his seasonal debut at Bangor - and historically has run very well on his second outing of the season.

Ofcourse this is not just a 2 horse race - and Shear Rock looks particularly dangerous based on his latest run behind Lady Buttons at Newbury.

Based on that run, he is definitely the one to beat - but he’s a horse who’s had issues in the past, so there must be a doubt about him stringing 2 good runs together.

Elixir du Gouet is the other one of particular interest, on his debut for Venetia - however, he’s impossible to assess…

In summary, I would expect Uno Valerosso to be in the mix - and he was value at this mornings price.

He’ll need a bit of luck if he is to win - but that’s invariably the case and he’s worth having on side.

2:40

Unlike Uno Valerosso, I don’t think Daklondike is guaranteed to run well - but if he does, I think he is more than capable of winning this…

He’s a bit of a moody character - and there must be a chance he won’t fancy it today.

However, connections are fully aware of that possibility - and the application of a first time visor strikes me as a significant move.

The hope is that the visor will cause him to race more keenly - and if that is the case, I’m pretty sure he has the ability to win.

3 wins from 6 runs last season, illustrate that he has plenty of talent - and as he’s only 6, he should still be improving.

I suspect that todays test is a minimum for him: however in the likely ground - and if he does race a bit more keenly, I’m happy that his undoubted stamina will come in to play.

Plenty of the others can be given a chance - though whether they will all cope with conditions, time alone will tell.

Kimberlite Candy is an improving sort - and could well be the main danger, as it’s a big ask for Duel at Dawn to win a race of this nature, on his seasonal debut.

Clan Legend has been well supported - primarily because of his record when fresh.

I respect that - but in todays ground, I would have some concerns about him tackling nearly 3 miles, for the first time.

The trip would also be the worry for Testify - even though he has very good course form, in heavy ground.
Of the outsiders, then I like veteran, Houblon des Obeaux, best.

He’s racing from a career low mark - and has a 7lb claimer on his back. At 16/1, he could be worth saving stakes on…

3:15

Theos Charm has a tremendous record over todays course and distance - and it’s hard to see him not going very close in this…

4 times, he’s run over todays course and distance - and he’s been placed on every occasion.

More than that, all 4 runs have been in significantly stronger races than todays - so he must have a very good chance, dropped in grade.

His most recent run was also at Haydock - but over a furlong further.

It was his seasonal debut - and the race took place on ground that was too quick for him.

In the circumstances, it wasn’t overly surprising to see him well beaten - but his mark has been dropped 3lb for the run - and that makes him look very competitively handicapped.

As is so often the case nowadays, when connections really fancy one, a decent 7lb claimer has been booked - this time in the shape of Rex Dingle.

In short, everything is in place for Theos Charm to run a massive race - the only question is whether one of his rivals will be a bit too good for him…

My feeling (and hope !) is that they won’t - though there are a couple lurking, who are sufficiently well handicapped to be dangerous, if they are at their best.

One is Tawseef and the other Closing Ceremony.

However, both are probably past their peak - and Closing Ceremony is returning from a significant absence.

Both also like to lead - as does Florri Knox - so that’s another reason for thinking they won’t spoil Theos party !

He likes to race prominently - but in behind the leaders - which should be ideal, if there is a strong pace.

He’s not a certainty - but I do think he was a good bet at the 3/1 available this morning…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB

Tips

Asc 1:50 Magic Saint 1pt win 4/1

Asc 2:25 Agrapart 1pt win 7/1

Asc 2:25 Sam Spinner 0.5pt win 7/1

Asc 3:35 Flying Tiger 0.5pt win 18/1

Hayd 1:35 Uno Valerosso 1pt win 12/1

Hayd 2:40 Daklondike 1pt win 8/1

Hayd 3:15 Theos Charm 2pt win 3/1

Mentions

Asc 3:00 Flying Angel (O )