Daily write-up - Dec 28th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Leicester and Catterick in the UK - plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

I have to admit them I’m a little relieved, that things aren’t as busy today…

The last 2 days have been full on - and it’s only possible to sustain that for a short period (and 2 solid days, is plenty long enough !).

Whilst there are 4 meetings today - only Leopardstown could be classed as ‘big’.

There is a grade 3 hurdle race at Limerick: but the favourite, Stormy Island, looks the most likely winner.

Whilst at Leicester, there are a couple of half decent handicaps, which I could maybe have stretched into ‘big’ races.

However all the horses I was interested in, were backed last night, so I’m not inclined to get involved.

With nothing better than class 4 events at Catterick - it just leaves Leopardstown for me to focus on…

I was hoping to find a tip or two there - but again, the attractive opening prices soon went leaving very limited options, this morning.

As I said yesterday (and as you probably saw !), it’s very hard for me to get involved with all but the biggest races in Ireland - and whilst there is one of those today, I can’t find anything that I want to tip in it.

As a consequence, we have a rare day with a write-up - but no tips.
There are a few Mentions though, and hopefully some of you be able to get creative with the write-up !

Here are my thoughts on the main races on the Leopardstown card…

Leopardstown

12:45

As I’m sure a few of you guessed, I would have liked to tip Russian Bill in this…

He caught my eye on his penultimate run, when returning from a long absence - and I pointed him out, before his most recent run at Navan.
Unfortunately, he was a more obvious eye catcher then - and plenty of people have evidently latched on to him.

He was a 20/1 shot on the opening show yesterday - but was backed all evening and was half that price this morning…

I suspect he will drift a little (he’s already doing so on Betfair) - but not quickly enough for me to suggest an official involvement.

I would think a price of 14/1 was fair - so if you can secure that, he may be worth a small interest…

In truth, the race is a bit of a minefield !

In anticipation of being able to tip him, I checked out a few of his rivals - and there are plenty of potential dangers…

Favourite, Pleasant Company is the obvious one, off a mark nearly 2 stone lower than his chase mark.

If (and it’s a fairly big ‘if’) Willie Mullins has him spot on, he is likely to hack up…

In truth I doubt that will be the case - but you would have to be wary of him…

Others of definite interest, are Thermistocles and Slippery Serpent.
They’ve both been in good form - and have progressive profiles.

Satoshi is more speculative for Gordon Elliott - but he has a very low weight and could be an improver.

He can also be backed at 25/1 !

I tipped Sweet Home Chicago, last time at Cheltenham - and he didn’t run too badly.

He’s been dismissed in the betting today (33/1), but I wouldn’t completely give up on him…

The trouble is, I’m already up to half a dozen of interest - and I‘ve not touched on any of J P McManus’s 7 runners !!

My plan is to back Russian Bill - and maybe have a small bet on Satoshi and Sweet Home Chicago.

Whatever, it’s certainly not a race to be going mad on !!

1:20

There are only 6 runners in this - but I can’t see an angle in to it…

Bacarsdys and Tower Bridge both won Grade 1 races over hurdles - but have disappointed so far over fences.

In fairness, Tower Bridge has only had one go over the bigger obstacles - but he did run poorly…

Gun Digger has the best form over fences - but he hardly sets a insurmountable  standard…

Borderline Chato is making his chasing debut - and whilst he’s looked good over hurdles, he’s taking on stronger opposition today.

Jessie Harrington is responsible for the other 2 runners in the race: Another Barney and Whisperinthebreeze.

The former doesn’t look enough - and whilst that’s also true of the latter, the fact he is ridden by Robbie Power and wears first time blinkers, make him more interesting…

My initial instinct was to give Tower Bridge a chance to redeem himself - but he’s been backed in to 9/2, which seems about the right price.

Instead, I might be inclined to side with Whisperinthebreeze.

He finished well in front of Tower Bridge when the 2 clashed at Punchestown in November - and if the blinkers do the trick, he is over-priced at 9/1.

That said, it’s not a race that I plan to get heavily involved with !

1:50

This looks a 2 horses race, between Faugheen and Apples Jade…

Faugheen is rated more than a stone higher than the third highest rated horse in the race and it will be a huge shock if one of the ‘big 2’ doesn’t win.

A win for Faugheen would doubtless bring the house down - but I have to say that I think the Leopardstown ‘house’ is pretty safe !

If both horses were at their peak, it might be a different matter: however, Faugheen is almost certainly in decline; whilst Apples Jades, arguably posted the best performance of her career when wining the Hattons Grace, last time out.

Barring accidents - or some tactical mess up - I really can’t see her being beaten…

I could see Faugheen not finishing second, though - and if there is a bet in the race (for those of you who want to get particularly creative !), it might be Bapaume in the ‘w/o apples Jade’ market at about 6/1.

That will rely on Faugheen under-performing - but I think there is a chance that will happen...
If it doesn’t, he’s likely to follow the mare home - though I suspect it will be at a respectful distance !

3:00

I’m finding this a hard race to assess in so much as whilst I think Road to Respect is the right favourite - and 9/4 probably the right price - it really wouldn’t surprise me if he were beaten - and a case of sorts can be made for most of his rivals !

The angle in to the race, should probably be the relatively quick ground.
However, that has already been factored in to the betting - and explains why Road to Respect is favourite and why Balko des Flos has been well backed (both horses have a marked preference for quick ground).

But what if the ground isn’t riding as quick as people think..?

Anibale Fly finished just in front of Road to Respect in last seasons Gold cup - yet he is a 14/1 shot today.

That has to be value !

However, as a novice, Anibale Fly wasn’t as good as Disko - and Disko wasn’t as good as Coney Island - so surely the latter has to be the bet today, at 25/1 ?!

The trouble is, Coney Island hasn’t shown much form for a long time - so there is plenty of guesswork required…

At an even bigger price, JPs third string, Edwulf, has to be of some interest.

He won last seasons grade 1 Irish Gold Cup - and yet is a  40/1 shot today !

It really is possible to turn the race round and round - and keep coming up with a different answer…

Personally, I can’t back Road to Respect - even though I expect him to run well and think him the most likely winner.

I’m more inclined to have a few small speculative bets on JPs 3 runners.

As for Shattered Love: the ground is unlikely to be ideal for her - but I would still hope she can run well (and therefore enhance our ante-post position for the Gold Cup).

Whatever, I won’t be overly worried about how she performs. I know she has the ability to run well in March - and I’m sure Gordon Elliott will have her spot on for that.

Best of luck, if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.

Tips

None

Mentions

Leop 12:45 Russian Bill (P )

Leop 1:20 Whisperinthebreeze (S )

Leop 1:50 Bapaume (w/o Apples Jade)

Leop 3:00 Coney Island (S )