Daily write-up - Dec 27th

There are 5 NH meetings today: at Kempton, Chepstow and Wetherby in the UK - plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

Whilst there may only be half as many meetings as yesterday, there’s very little let up on the intensity !

The cards at Kempton, Chepstow and Leopardstown are all top class - and there weren’t many races that I could just skim over.

Thankfully, there is only the one race of interest at Wetherby; whilst I haven’t bothered with Limerick at all (simply because there just wasn’t the time).

As has been the case recently, finding potential tips wasn’t hard: the tricky bit is getting a price on them which most of you are will be able to secure.

I’ve ended up with 5 on the day (across 4 races) - plus a a fair few Mentions.

When things are so busy, it is worth keeping a particularly close eye on the Mentions…

Here is the rationale behind the tips - plus my thoughts on the days other main races…

Kempton

1:20

I was half tempted to take on Kalashnikov in this…

He’s a horse I like - but I’m not sure that he will be particularly well suited to todays test.

As I said yesterday, Kempton is quite a sharp track - and I’m not convinced that will suit him.

More than that, it will suit his 2 main rivals: Dynamite Dollars and Marias Benefit.

They are both much speedier types - and Kempton should be ideal for them.

I would expect Marias Benefit to make the running - and for Dynamite Dollars to track her.

Which one comes out best, is likely to come down to jumping…

Kalashnikov will come into his own, if the pace is too strong and things fall apart.

I would suggest Dynamite Dollars as the most likely winner - even though he has to concede 5lb to Kalashnikov (and the mares allowance to Marias Benefit).

There is minimal value in a price of 3/1 however, against 2 decent rivals…

1:55 

Jubilympics was an official eye catcher last time - and she has a definite chance in this.

Her second at Sandown was a good run - but todays race represent a very different test.

Last time, it was a class 3 race, run over 2m4f in heavy ground; today it is a class 2 race, over 3m on good to soft ground.

She may well be up to the job - but there is a lot of guesswork required…

That is also true with a number of her rivals.

Neither Momella nor Chilli Filli are proven over todays trip - though it’s quite possible they will both improve for it.

Instinctively, I feel that Momella has been put in too short at 11/8, so it is tempting to take her on.

However, all 6 of the other runners can be given a chance - so I would find it hard to commit to one.

I wouldn’t put anyone off a small play on Jubilympics - but she strikes me as roughly the right price at 7/1, so she can only be a Mention…

2:30

Altior is rated almost 20lb superior to all 4 of his rival in this - and whilst he does have to give them all a few pounds, it will be a huge surprise (way beyond the defeat of Buveue Dair yesterday), if he’s not up to the job…

He is just about the best chaser in training at the moment - and comes into this race, unbeaten in 15 runs over obstacles.

It really will be a huge shock if he loses…

That’s particularly so, because the race should unfold perfectly for him…

No less than 3 of his 4 rival like to make the running - which should ensure there is a strong pace.
That’s exactly what Altior needs - and should prevent things from becoming tactical (which is probably the one way he could be beaten).
I expect him to win comfortably and Diego de Charmil could pick up the pieces for second, if there is a pace war up front.

3:05

Just occasionally, I really take to a horse - and I have to admit, I’ve really taken to Springtown Lake…

It’s a strange one really, as it was all down to his penultimate run at Sandown.

That was his seasonal debut - and his chasing debut - and whilst the won, he was the 11/4 fav, so was expected to do so…

But that wasn’t the point…

It was the characteristics that Springtown Lake demonstrated during the race, which I was really impressed by.

He led from the start - but was being niggled along throughout.

Challenger after challenger cruised in behind him - but he kept on finding a bit more - either with a good jump or by galloping a little bit faster !

You could see the horse had an attitude to die for - and ultimately, it wasn’t a surprise to see him come home in front…

His only other run this season came at Haydock, earlier this month.
There he was trying to give 5lb to a horse rated 6lb higher than him over hurdles.

He came up short - but only by a couple of lengths - and that will to win was again there for all to see…

He gets stepped up in trip today - and I’m sure he will benefit from that.

He also has Dickie in the saddle - so the perfect jockey to compliment his own willingness.

In truth, the opposition isn’t bad: Just a Sting is another talented novice who is improving fast - and he will be a tough one for Springtown Lake to fend off.

The others are more exposed - though Wandrin Star ans Kilcrea Vale can’t be easily dismissed.

However, there is only one horse in the race that I want to side with - as I know that even if he’s not good enough to win, he will give it his absolute all.

Thankfully, I also think he will be good enough :)

Chepstow

1:05

This is a really tight looking handicap - but I think it is worth supporting Dusky Lark.

He ran particularly well last time, when second to Siruh du Lac at Exeter and whilst he has been raised 2lb for that effort, he is still 2lb below his last winning mark.

Todays trip and ground look ideal for him - and he comes from the stable of Rob Walford, which has served us so well in recent weeks.

In short, he has a tick in just about every box - so whilst most of his rivals looks dangerous, he looks the most solid option…

In fairness, Touch Kick also has a very good profile - and had Dusky Lark well behind when winning at Hereford on his seasonal debut.

However, he was around half the price of Ducky Lark this morning - and I don’t expect there to be that much between the pair.

Of the others, then it’s not hard to make a case for Top Gamble, Doitforthevillage, Kings Odyssey, Calipto or Le Rocher - though they all have a question mark of some sort, hanging over them.

Top Gamble and Kings Odyssey arrive on the back of heavy falls: Whilst the trip in the ground, is a concern for both Doitforthevillage and Calipto - and I’m not totally  convinced that Le Rocher is sufficiently well handicapped.

It’s certainly not a race where you could be overly confident - but I would expect Ducky Lark to put in a big run and be there or thereabouts, at the end…

1:35

I’m guessing on this - so I’ll keep it short - but I suspect Arvene could be worth a small interest at 12/1…

He’s recently been bought by J P McManus - but retains his French trainer.

It just strikes me as significant that they are prepared to ship him over to contest this race…

Adjali and Quel Destin set a reasonable level - but I doubt it’s unsurmountable.

I would expect the late market to guide - so if Arvene comes in for support, it could be worth taking the hint…

2:50

It strikes me that Vintage Clouds has a near perfect profile for this race…

An improving 8 year old, with a bucket load of stamina - he looked better than ever, when winning on his seasonal debut at Haydock.

He was placed at last years Cheltenham festival - and in the Scottish National - and also finished fourth in this race 12 months ago…

He could arguably have finished even closer as he was badly hampered at around half way.

The trouble is, if you fancy him (and I do !), then you have to fancy Final Nudge…

He was a place and a couple of lengths ahead of Vintage cloud last year - and yet is 13lb better off a the weights today !

As a form student, it is impossible to ignore that kind of thing…

In fairness, there is a slight doubt concerning Final Nudges stamina. He didn’t finish the race as strongly as Vintage Clouds last year - but he wasn’t tying up either…

It’s also a positive that he is making his seasonal debut today, as the horse has an excellent record fresh. The booking of STD is a further plus - considering his dad also has a runner in the race (which presumably he could have ridden).

I’m pretty sweet on both horses (if that’s possible - in the same race !) - and despite the field size, I’ll be disappointed if at least one of them doesn’t go very close…

The only other runner that I considered getting involved with is Vieux Lion Rouge.

It’s interesting that Tom Scu rides him rather than Ramses de Teille - and he is certainly handicapped to go close.

I’ll be saving stakes on him - but for the official P&L, I’ll stick with Vintage Clouds and Final Nudge.

Leopardstown

1:50

I was hoping to support Triplicate in this - but I wanted a bit more in the price than 3/1…

In truth, it is probably a fair enough price, as he arguably has the best form in the race.

That is courtesy of his last time out second behind Quick Grabim, in the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse.

Ruby Walsh stole the race from the front that day - which makes Triplicates run all the more meritorious.

The issues with supporting him, are that the small field could see another tactical contest - and that is unlikely to suit him.

Also, Barry Geraghty rides Sancta Simona, suggesting he is J P McManus’s number one contender.

Finally, Triplicate doesn’t have a lot in hand of Aramon, based on their 3 meetings…

All this said, I still think Triplicate is the most likely winner - I would just want a bit in the price.
Maybe wanting more than 3/1 in a 6 horse race is unrealistic - but with the doubts, I'm not prepared to play at that price…

2:25

I have to admit that this race presented me with a dilemma…

I’m pretty keen on Law Girl - but I also knew that tipping her would cause a price crash.

I’ve said before that tipping in anything other than the biggest Irish races, is nearly impossible - and I think we saw that again this morning !

It’s a problem for me: I would have been sorely tempted to take a risk on Rocky Blue yesterday, if he’d not been such a big price and running in an Irish race.

I resisted and consequently missed a 20/1 winner (officially speaking !).

Unfortunately, there is no way round it.
I could delay - but the same problem would occur whenever I tipped….
Suffice to say, if I do tip anything at a big price in an Irish race, then I fancy it - and I think that there is a decent margin in the price !

In terms of the case for Law Girl: then she caught my eye last time out, on her debut for Jessie Harrington.

She cantered into the lead that day, after jumping the second last - but didn’t get home.

I would expect her to do much better today, with that run under her belt.
She also cuts back in trip by half a mile - and is wearing a tongue tie (for good measure !).

For a horse rated 92 of the flat, a mark of 125 over hurdles, suggests she could have 10lb in hand - and based on her last run, I could well believe that.

With 18 runners, this is a competitive race - but 20/1 was far too big a price…

I would have her closer to 10/1 - and I would still be quite tempted at that price !

If you’ve not been able to back her, I would make sure you do.

Maybe go win only - and ideally leave it until close to the off (when the bookmakers are balancing their books).

I’ll be very disappointed if she doesn’t go extremely close.

3:00

I fully expected to be having a crack at this race - but all the horses I like have made their way to the head of the market - and I fancy a few too many, for there to be much of an edge…

I had 4 on my short list: Solomn Grundy; Back Scorpion; Borice and Any Second Now.

I think the first 2 named are the solid options in the race - but it wouldn’t surprise  me if either of the last 2, came good.

4 is a lot to be supporting in a race - particularly when they are all in the top 6 places in the betting.

Obviously in such a big field, a fair amount of luck is needed - plus I could also half fancy at least 4 more !

If I had been able to tip a bit earlier, then we could have secured some value about the main 4 fancies - but with them all 14/1 or less, backing them all is the equivalent to backing a 5/2 shot - and I just don’t think it’s a race where you could ever feel that confident.

I therefore decided the best course of action, was to leave the race alone…

Wetherby

2:15

I thought Dusky Larks race at Chepstow was competitive - but then I looked at this one !

The 8 runner field consists of 2 last time out eye catchers - plus a last time out winning tip !

More than that, all 5 of the other runners can be given a chance - so much as I wanted to play in the race, I felt that watching was the more sensible option…

That said, if Just Cameron was easily available at a double figure price (and I suspect he will be at some point), I would take a chance on him EW.

He caught my eye last time, when I’m sure he was being ridden with today in mind.

He finished third to Bouvreuil that day - but I suspect he’ll reverse the form on 5lb better terms.

The application of a first time visor looks highly significant - and I can’t believe that Just Cameron won’t run a very big race.

The trouble is, even if he does, he might not be good enough to win !

He’s rising 12 now, so unlikely to be at the peak of his powers - and is taking on a number of up-and-coming types…

Lady Buttons is the obvious one - and she has been a revelation this year.

However, she is going up the handicap at a pace - and the assessor will get to her sooner or later…

Marracudja and Cracking Find are 2 other potential improvers - Whilst Forest Bihan and Duke of Navan are classy enough to be dangerous, if at the top of their game…

And then there is Saint Leo: the second officail eye catcher in the race.

I suspect this will be too much for him on only his second UK start - but I wouldn’t be absolutely sure of that…

In short, it’s a cracking race.

Just Cameron would be the bet - but EW - and only if a double figure price can be secured…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Kemp 3:05 Springtown Lake 2pt win 10/3

Chep 1:05 Dusky Lark 1pt win 8/1

Chep 2:50 Vintage Clouds 0.5pt win 9/1

Chep 2:50 Final Nudge 0.5pt win 14/1

Leop 2:25 Law Girl 0.5pt EW 20/1

Mentions

Kemp 1:20 Dynamite Dollars (O )

Kemp 1:55 Jubilympics (O )

Chep 1:35 Arvene (S )

Leop 1:50 Triplicate (P )

Leop 3:00 Solumn Grundy (P ), Black Scorpion (O), Borice (S ), Any Second Now (S)

Weth 2:15 Just Cameron (O )