Sunday 9 December 2018

Review of the day

I got a lot of things wrong today - but thankfully, I got one important thing right…

- I mis-judged the ground at both Sandown (softer than I expected) and Aintree (not as soft as I expected).

- I didn’t tip Midnight Shadow or Dynamite Dollar - when I considered both.

- I took a risk on Friday Night Light - when I was worried about his stable form: and Captain Redbeard - when I knew there was minimal room for manoeuvre in his handicap mark.

However, I also took a risk on Walk in the Mill - despite him being unproven on the ground - or over the fences - and that one smart move, offset all of the less smart ones !

Such is life in the tipping game…

To be fair, Walk in the Mill quite possibly benefited from the ground being quicker than I expected.
He didn’t travel particularly strongly - but he clearly has plenty of stamina.
And whilst Call it Magic looked to be moving very powerfully rounding the home turn - I had a feeling he had done too much, too soon.

And so it proved.
Walk on the Mill jumped past him, at the last - and had timed his run better than Vieux Lion Rouge.

It was nice to finally get a decent priced winner.
These 4/1 shots are all very well - but they are not really TVB style, are they ?!

Prior to that win, Another Emotion had run very creditably to finish second at Sandown.
His inexperience didn’t betray him - but maybe a lack of race sharpness, did.

I looked long and hard at the winner, Eminent Poet - but he had no form when fresh and was making his seasonal debut.
I guess that’s Venetia for you !

Friday Night Light was the next tip to run - and he ran a fair race - but wasn’t good enough.
There were no excuses.

Again, I could have picked the winner, Man of Plenty - but I latched on to Friday Night Light and constructed a case for him…

Captain Redbeard was the final tip on the day - and he was just disappointing.
He’s been running over 3 miles - and I expected his stamina to be an asset if the race became a slog.

However, on decent ground, he was soon outpaced - and instead, it was Warriors Tale who came home in front.
I thought the ground would be too soft for him - so at least my story is consistent !

As for the Mentions;
Then Dynamite Dollar was the only official winning one.
I really did get close to tipping him - but as much as Lalor, I was put off by the presence of Ornua.
I was right as well, as he ran a screamer - leading until Dynamite Dollar ran him down after the last.
Mahverlous was disappointing, up against Midnight Shadow - if I’d know he would run that badly, I would certainly have tipped the former !
Oxwich Bay fell at Chepstow - and Atrielarigo disappointed in the same race: I guess that was a bullet (or two) missed.
Also at Chepstow, Back to the Thatch ran well to finish fourth - but was no match for Ramses de Teille (even if he was too short in the betting !).
Lady Camelot finished a distant third at Aintree - but didn’t run as well as I expected: whilst Actinpieces got pulled up in the heavy ground at Sandown - not too surprisingly.

The star of the day however, was undoubtedly Altior.
I’m not sure why I doubt the horse (the contrarian in me, perhaps ?!)
I picked him out after he won his very first hurdle race, so he should hold a place in my heart.
However, he generally looks vulnerable in his races - but that wasn’t the case today.
Fair enough, the race panned out pretty much exactly as I expected - but it still takes a horse of some quality to make Un De Sceaux look slow on heavy ground.

There really can’t be much argument - Altior is a horse of some quality…

TVB.

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