Daily write-up - Dec 1st

It’s the second day of Newburys 2 day Winter carnival - and the first day at Fairyhouse.

There are also decent meetings at Newcastle, Doncaster and Bangor.

With the softer ground resulting in generally better fields, there’s more action to preview than this particular racing adviser is capable of dealing with !

As a consequence, there’s a bit of cherry picking in the review.

The main focus is on Newbury, where the Ladbroke Trophy (aka the Hennessey) is the feature race on the card.

However, I’ve also cast an eye over the best races at Newcastle, Doncaster and Bangor.

I’ve left Fairyhouse alone.

There is only one race of real interest - the handicap chase at 1:25 - and that looks most likely to go to one of the 2 markets leaders (unless Nearly N’amad, who has won the race for the past 2 seasons, manages to again produce massive improvement out of nowhere !).

In terms of tips: then I’ve ended up with 5 on the day.

There were a few others which I would like to have tipped - but I just couldn’t get the prices I was after.

In truth, I’ve taken lower prices than ideal on a couple of the ones I have tipped - but I’m very hopeful that they will win !

Those that were nearly tips, are now Mentions - and my thoughts on them are  included in the write-up - along with the the rationale behind the horses that I did actually tip !

Newbury

12:45

Santini is expected by many to get to the very top as a chaser and he makes his debut in this.

He was pretty decent as a hurdler last season: beating Black op on Cheltenham trials day - and winning a grade 1 event at Aintree.

He suffered his only defeat last season, in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham festival - so it’s quite interesting to see his conqueror that day, taking him on again this afternoon.

That’s Kilbricken Storm and he arrives at todays race, having already won over fences.

That was in a novice chase at Ffos Las early last month - and whilst he wasn’t overly impressive that day, scrambling home by a very narrow margin, the fact is he won and he will doubtless have benefited from the experience…

Choosing which of the 2 will come out on top this afternoon, isn’t easy.
Santini probably will end up the superior animal - but Kilbricken Storm could be a bit too sharp for him this afternoon.
Certainly, he’s the more attractive bet, at a price of 5/2…

In truth, it may not just be a 2 horse race - as I would expect Le Breuil to run well - and Mr Big Shot could also get involved, if he’s ready to do himself justice on his seasonal debut.

It should be a fascinating race to watch - and it may also provide some useful pointers for the future…   

1:20

I was hoping to tip Kayf Adventure in this - as I think he has a fair chance and will appreciate the softening ground.

He’s steps up in trip today - but on his seasonal debut, that’s a slight concern.

However, he is trained by Philip Hobbs and his horses have been running much better this season, so my worries concerning his ability to last home aren’t massive.

I would certainly expect Kayf Adventure to run well - and at the early 7/1 I would have got involved with him.

However, he’s now down to 5/1 - and in a competitive race, with a few doubts over him, that’s too short.

Adrian de Pont is definitely a big danger, back down in trip, having run well on his seasonal debut: On Tour is another one who I would be fearful of, as he is potentially well handicapped.

The trouble is, those 2 have also been well found in the market, so there is no angle there, either…

Of those at bigger prices, then Kapcorse and Full Irish could both be dangerous - if they are able to bounce back from disappointing runs, last time…

1:50

This is a tough race to call…

Speedo Boy and Champ are the obvious ones - but they head the market and neither has completely water tight credentials.

Champs case rests on his second to Vindication, at the back end of last season -- along with victories in a couple of minor races this season.

The trouble is, it’s anyones guess as to whether that warrants an opening handicap mark of 139…

It’s easy to say that Speedo Boy’s mark is fair - but not so easy to say whether he will cope with soft ground and a big field.

Of the 2, I prefer the claims of the latter - but a price of 4/1, is too short…

Outside the market leaders, then Barters Hill could certainly be very well handicapped - if he retains enough of his old ability.
The trouble with him, is that he’s suffered a lot if injuries, so it’s impossible to know how good he now is.

Padleyourowncanoe looks a solid option - and I would expect him to run his race (and quite possibly be placed).
However, at a much bigger price, I think it is worth taking a small risk on Vaziani…

He’s impossible to get a proper handle on - but he finished second last season, to a good horse in Redicean - and should be better for his seasonal debut at Sandown.

He raced prominently that day - but got outpaced when the tempo quickened.
I expected him to finish tailed off - but he stayed on up the hill, to claim seventh spot.

He is stepped up in trip by half a mile today - and that looks a smart move.

Clearly there is a lot of guesswork involved - but I think he has a chance.

Robert Walfords horses all ran well last weekend - and at 33/1, I think he is worth a small speculative play, in what appears to be, a winnable race…

2:25

This looks like a high class handicap, in which cases can be made for a number of the runners.

Whatswrongwithyou looks like a potential improver for Nicky Henderson; and whilst Ballymoy was a little disappointing on his seasonal debut at Chepstow, he did win - and is only 3lb higher today (and will presumably now be straighter).

Global Citizen is another who should have come on for his seasonal debut - and he was massively impressive when winning at Kempton last season.

Mont des Avaloirs was beaten by both Ballymoy and Global Citizen last season - so it’s interesting that Paul Nicholls is prepared to put him back over hurdles this afternoon and take them on again...

In fairness Mont des Avaloirs is quite a bit better of at the weights with them both, and I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see him go close.

Again, as with Kayf Adventure, it all comes down to price.

It’s a tough race - and he has question marks over him.

At 8/1, I would have taken a risk: at 6/1 I can only watch… 

3:00

As ‘Henesseys’ go, this is a weak renewal.

Not only is there a poor turn out numerically, with just the 12 runners - the overall class of the field, is not up to the usual level.

Despite that, there will still be a winner ! - it’s just a question of picking out which one it will be…

The 2 market leaders, Thomas Patrick and Elegant Escape are both admirable  horses - and it will be a bit surprising if they are not there, or thereabouts.

However there is little margin in their respective odds of 4/1 and 5/1.

Ms Parfois would be very interesting on heavy ground - and with a run under her belt - but she doesn’t get either.

Dingo Dollar is another who I would expect to run well - but he too can be passed over, at 8/1.

Earlier in the week, I planned to tip American: But that was in the hope of soft ground - and the expectation that Noel Fehily would be riding.

I guess he may get away with the ground - but I just can’t view Aine O Connor as a positive jockey booing in such a valuable race.

Instead, I decided to take a risk on Flying Angel.

He actually ran just last Saturday - and prior to that effort, I would have given him no chance in this race !

He looked to be a horse who had lost his way - but the application of a visor seemed to transform him and he ran his best race for a long time.

Obviously there is a danger that he won’t have fully recovered from those exertions - but if he has, then I think he has a real chance this afternoon.

Certainly he has the back class to win a race of this nature, having won a grade 1 novice event at Aintree a couple of seasons ago.

Following that run, he was rated 157 - yet he runs today off a mark of just 142.

He’s only 7 as well - so should be nearing his peak, rather than on the decline.

In addition to the possibility of him ‘bouncing’ the 3 mile trip could stretch his stamina (though he may possible improve for it !).

In short, he has a few question marks hanging over him.

On the flip side: he’s in good form; very well handicapped - and has sufficient class to win a race of this nature.
Let’s put it this way, there will be many far worse 25/1 shots running this afternoon !

3:35

I had a bit of a dilemma with this race, as Lady Buttons was the only horse I was ever interested in - I just had to decide how low I was prepared to go with the price.

I was hoping for 4/1, as it appears to be a competitive event - but as is so often the case, it soon became clear that even 7/2 was going to be a struggle.

In truth, I rate her chances at better than 3/1 - so at 10/3, I was still prepared to take the plunge - even though I don’t like tipping at such a low price !

In terms of the case for her, then I think it is very strong.

She’s an extremely useful mare over hurdles - rated 137 and capable of performing at listed level.

She’s actually only run 3 times over fences - but has won twice and finished fourth in  a grade 1 event at Aintree on the other occasion.

That was a good run, against geldings, though I was a little disappointed, as based  on her 2 previous runs, it looked as if she was going to be a fair bit better over fences than she is over hurdles.

I guess we’ll find out today, whether that will be the case !

Certainly she will need to improve in order to win todays race - but I’m very optimistic that there is plenty of improvement in her.

Conditions look perfect, so there should be no excuse on that score - it’s just a question of whether she can get there better of a strong field.

In truth, I’m not fearful of any one of her rivals in particular.

Cases can be made for Big Matre, Forest Bihan, Doitforthevillage and Rock on Rocky - to name but 4.

However, non of them have the scope for improvement that Lady Buttons does.
I think this race is all about whether Lady Buttons runs to the level of form which I think she is capable.

If she does, she will win: if she doesn’t, she probably won’t !

Newcastle

2:05

Even up against the Ladbroke Trophy, this is arguably the race of the day.

I don’t think anyone really expected to see Samcro taking on Buveuir Dair at this stage in the season - and adding Summerville Boy in to the mix, just puts the icing on the cake !

Clearly it’s a watching race, rather than a betting race - but what a fascinating watch it should be !

If forced off the fence, I would side with Samcro - as I think his race fitness could prove decisive.

I’d also quite like to see him win, as it’s great to witness the dawning of a new champion - and I do believe he eventually could be, just that.

That said, I’m not totally convinced he’ll be a Champion at 2 miles over hurdles - though if he beats Buveur Dair today, I may have to revise my opinion on that !

Certainly a race to savour…

3:20

I did want to get involved with this race - but I can’t decide which horse to side with !

I was torn between Ballydine and Bishops Road - and I even considered tipping them both !

The trouble is, I can see also the cases for both Big River and Ami Desbois - if they are fit: Whilst I would would be slightly fearful of Otago Trail and Templehills (even though both have big question marks over them).

I certainly would have taken a risk on Bishops Road, at a double figure price - even accepting that a run over a marathon trip at Haydock, just 7 days go, is hardly the ideal preparation !

The issue with Ballydine isn’t the price - in fact, I’m a little surprised he’s as big as 7/1 !

However, that in itself makes me nervous, as the horse is making its seasonal debut (so there is a chance it may not be fully wound up).

Otago Trail has no chance of beating Bishops Road, based on form - but I’m still fearful of him: and whilst I’ll be a little surprised if Templehills can win, I’ll be far less surprised to see him run well.

He’s definitely a candidate for a pre-race back with a view to laying in running (there’s not been one of those for a while).

Ultimately though, I just felt the race was a bit too trappy to get involved with, so  felt obliged to move on…

Doncaster

2:15

There’s a certain amount of risk involved with tipping anything at Doncaster this afternoon, with the ground continuing to cause horses to be pulled out.

It can therefore be argued that I should have left Sunnytahliateigan alone in this - but I can’t !

I was quite interested in him when he ran at Cheltenham on his seasonal debut, at the end of October.

I wasn’t the only one that day, either !

Backed down from an early 33/1, he was eventually sent off at just 8/1 - and he ran a screamer.

Although he was never going to beat handicap good thing, Storm Rising, he was probably the second best horse in the race (despite finishing third).

He runs off the same mark again today - and should be sharper following that run.

More than that, his mark was already looking attractive based on his second place at Sandown behind Golan Fortune, last November.

I have a feeling that Sunnytahliateigan has about a stone in hand of his mark - and the market support he received last time, re-enforces that view.

It further adds to his case, that 7lb claimer Edward Austin takes the ride this afternoon (as he has done on the horses’ 4 previous outings): and the opposition also looks decidedly limited…

I suspect it will all come down to whether Potterman or Simply the Betts can give Sunnytahliateigan in excess of a stone - plus another 7lb for the jockey.

In fairness, neither of them is totally exposed, so it’s not impossible - however it will be a huge ask.

Obviously, I was hoping for bigger than 9/4 - but realistically, he looks more like a 6/4 shot to me.

In the circumstances, I had to get involved…

Bangor

12:55

Mr Monochrome was an official eye catcher at Carlisle last time and I think he is worth backing in this.

The Carlisle run was his first for Donald McCain and the horse travelled with real enthusiasm before weakening out of things, late on.

I would expect him to strip fitter for that run - and the drop back to 2 miles should ensure he lasts home.

Compared to most of his rivals today, Mr Monochrome is very inexperienced over fences, with just the 2 previous runs.

It’s therefore impossible to say categorically that he is well handicapped - but I suspect he is.
Certainly he has bits and pieces of form over hurdles, which suggest he could have plenty in hand of his current mark.

I couldn’t dismiss any of his rivals today - but equally, non of them frighten me unduly.

As with Lady Buttons, I think that if Mr Monochrome runs to the level I believe him capable of, he should win…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Newb 1:50 Vaziani 0.5pt win 33/1

Newb 3:00 Flying Angel 0.5pt win 25/1

Newb 3:35 Lady Buttons 2pts win 10/3

Donc 2:15 Sunnytahliateigan 2pt win 9/4

Bang 12:55 Mr Monochrome 1pt win 4/1

Mentions

Newb 12:45 Kilbricken Storm (O )

Newb 1:20 Kayf Adventure (P )

Newb 2:25 Mont des Avaloirs (P )

Newc 2:05 Samcro (O )

Newc 3:30 Bishops Road (C ) & Ballydine (C )