Daily write-up - Dec 16th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Carlisle and Southwell in the UK - plus Navan in Ireland.

In truth, it’s a low-key afternoon - with all 3 of the meetings, not much better than you would expect to see during the mid-week.

Southwell, is particularly uninspiring - and easily swerved…

However, there are 3 fair races taking place at Carlisle - and a couple of decent events at Navan.

I’ve ended up with a tip at both venues and it would certainly be nice to end, what has been a frustrating weekend, with a winner (or two !).

Here’s the rationale for the tips - plus my thoughts on the other main races…

Carlisle

1:55

It was a shame to see Spiders Bite withdrawn from this, on account of the ground…

I know that he’s got a stated preference for good ground - but my view, based on his action, is that he would be better on soft !

Alas, we’re not going to find out…

Luckofthedraw has been installed favourite - and whilst I can understand that, I do have some reservations about him on heavy ground.

It’s not that I don’t think he will handle it - just that it will put more of an emphasis on stamina - and he is unproven over todays trip.

He’s also a free going sort - so he will need to relax, if he’s going to get home…

In truth, a case of sorts, can be made for all of the runners - and the market has them positioned about right.

Reverant Cust is probably the one I would side with, if forced.

I’m a big admirer of his trainer (he places his small string of horses particularly well) - and the horse won well enough on his chasing debut at Catterick.

He’ll need to step up on that form - but I suspect he is capable of doing just that.

That said, it’s such an open race, I wouldn’t really want to get too heavily involved with anything…

2:25

Despite having won his 2 starts for Jonjo - and looking on a big upward curve, Aspen Colorado is vulnerable in this…

His wins have seen him raised 15lb in the handicap - but that’s not the main issue.

He steps up in trip today - and on heavy ground, there has to be a serious question mark over his stamina.

He has run poorly on his 2 previous attempts at 3 miles - and also on his one run on heavy ground.

In the circumstances, you would feel obliged to look elsewhere for the winner…

Flashjack definitely has a chance - as he will relish both the ground and the trip.

I just wonder whether he may be a shade high in the handicap…

Isaactown Lad is handicapped to win - provided he isn’t in decline.

He’ll be 12 in a fortnights time, so that must be a possibility - however, he too will relish todays test.

Kris Spin is another who will love the conditions - but I suspect he will need the run.

He’s maybe one for a pre-race back with a view to laying in running (ideally, just before he starts to tire !)

I find it difficult to choose between Flashjack and Isaactown Lad - and neither is a huge price (around 9/2).
If one of them drifts to around 6/1, then it could be worth getting involved.

3:00

I’m really hoping that the ground at Carlisle is barely race-able - because that’s just how Chef Doeuvre likes it !

I remember watching him win in desperate ground at Hereford, a couple of seasons back - and he was quite a sight.

On a day, when horses were struggling to get their feet out of the ground - and few completed their races - he just galloped on relentlessly, seemingly without a care in the world…
On the back of that win, he was rated 135 - and his future looked bright.
However, things haven’t turned out that way…

He’s run 7 times since then - and has been beaten on each occasion.
In fairness, he’s not had conditions in his favour too often - and his best subsequent run, was back on heavy at Ayr in January.

He finished second over hurdles that day - and it was his final outing for Warren Greatrex…

He is now trained by Sam England and he had his first run for her at Uttoxeter, last month.

That was in a fair race - and he ran pretty well, to finish fourth.

He forced the pace that day (as is his want) - and only tired up the home straight.

I would expect the run to have brought him on - and back on his favoured surface, he has to be off interest today...

Certainly from a handicapping perspective then his chance is clear, as he is running off a mark of just 120.

In truth, this doesn’t look the strongest of races, with both Samstown and Kilbree Chief, having a lot to prove on the back of long absences.

Lough Derg Farmer has a similar profile to Chef Doeuvre - but he is unproven in todays ground.

As a consequence, Kilcullen Flem and Lowanbehold, look the main dangers.

The issue with the former, is the trip (he ideally wants further); whilst hopefully the latter just isn’t as well handicapped as Chef Doeuvre.

Time will tell, I guess..!

Navan

12:30

I’m sure that most of you recall Choungayas last race at Navan, when he was agonisingly run out of things, close home.

Even by TVB standards, that was a tough one, as in addition to him, I’d tipped Magnium in the race - and both managed to trade odds on in running - and get beaten !

Their conqueror then, Easy Game, is back to take them on again this afternoon - and you have to think it will be very close again, between the 3 of them.

They were separated by just a head and a neck that day - and meet on the same terms this afternoon.

As a consequence, prices of 10/3, 8/1 and 16/1, don’t make a lot of sense !

Ofcourse, in a way, it’s understandable: Easy Game did win - and he is trained by Willie Mullins - but I think we have to be prepared to go against that tide !

In truth, this isn’t just a case of taking the value, as I think Choungaya should have won that race.

He kicked on approaching the final hurdle and was around 2 lengths clear, when a sloppy jump, cost him ground and momentum.

If he had hurdled cleanly, I think we would have got a different result.

Rachael Blackmore takes over in the saddle this afternoon - and hopefully she will be able to get the horse to ping the last rather than clatter through it !

Ofcourse, this isn’t just a 3 horse race…

Rhinestone is the second representative from Joseph O’Brien’s stable - and he gets Mark Walsh on board this afternoon.

He’s a horse of massive potential - but he’s very inexperienced and I do wonder if he might need a little more time.

The same is true for Defi Blue, who represents Gigginstown and Gordon Elliott.

On balance, I’d rather side with the battle hardened runners.

Which brings us back to Easy Game, Magnium - and Choungaya…

1:00

This is a relatively valuable race - and with 22 runners, it will take a bit of sorting…

Calie Du Mesnil has been installed favourite - but a lot of that is down to her connections (Mullins and Walsh) - and if I were to get involved with the race, I would be inclined to take her on…

Dinaria des Obeaux looks the most likely winner, to me.

She is now better known as a chaser - and is rated 11lb higher in that discipline (which means she could be well handicapped over hurdles).

Following a couple of runs over fences, she should be fit - and she too has impeccable connections (Elliot and Kennedy).

Walk to Freedom is the other one at the head of the market, who I like.
He’s a bit of a character, and he can be very head strong - but Robbie Power was brilliant on him last time and he won well.
He runs off a mark 7lb higher this afternoon - but can probably defy that, provided he gives himself a chance !
As you would expect, in a race of this nature, there are plenty of others who have a chance - however, of those at big prices, the one that interests me most, is Russian Bill.

He was very decent a couple of seasons back - but had been off the track for 2 years, prior to his run at Naas, last month.

He didn’t run badly that day and I would expect him to improve for the outing.

I suspect he’s still capable of winning a fair race - and it may possibly be this one !

That said, there’s a lot of guesswork involved - and he could just as easily, need another run, in order to gain full fitness.

I’ll be keeping a close eye on him though - and maybe having a small bet - just in case !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Carl 3:00 Chef Doeuvre 1pt win 5/1

Nav 12:30 Choungaya 0.5pt win 16/1

Mentions

Carl 1:55 Reverant Cust (O )

Nav 1:00 Russian Bill (S )