Daily write-up - Dec 15th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Hereford in the UK - plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

It’s the second day of the International meeting at Cheltenham - but the races don’t look as Punter friendly as they did yesterday.

Worse than that, rain is due to hit the course at some point during the day, so to an extent, we have to guess on ground conditions.

In the circumstances, there is little option other than to tread cautiously…

Doncaster has again drawn a series of small fields, due to the relatively quick ground.

They passed their early morning inspection, but there are often NRs when there has been frost in the ground - so again, it’s not really a meeting you can launch in to with a great deal of confidence.

It’s low grade fayre on offer at Fairyhouse - so in a way, the meeting at Hereford should present the best betting opportunities on the day.

There are a couple of class 2 races - and most of the fields have a nice shape.

However, I can’t help but feel that there are a few ‘plot’ horses running - so yet again, caution needs to be the order of the day.

All in all then, not the best betting day !

Despite that, I’ve managed to find 3 tips: by looking far and wide - and showing a bit of patience !

Hopefully they will justify my efforts !

Here’s my rationale for them - plus my thoughts on all of the Cheltenham races…

Cheltenham

12:10

I wouldn’t usually look to get involved with a juvenile hurdle - particularly at this point in the season - but on a day when opportunities are very thin on the ground, there does look to be one in this race…

Katpoli finished fourth in the juvenile event run at the November meeting.

That was probably the strongest race of its type, run so far this season - and he was only beaten 4 lengths.
More than that, jumping the second last, he looked the most likely winner (traded 2.2 in-running) - but he didn’t finish off his race as well as 3 of his rivals.

It was still a big step up on his debut run in this country at Huntingdon. He won that race, but was very erratic.

The suggestion is therefore that he is improving - and I’m hoping he will take another step forward today…

If he does, then I think he will take a bit of beating.

For a start, 3 of his rivals are making their UK debuts.

I guess one of them might be a star - but even if that is the case, horses coming over from France invariably improve for their first run (as was the case with Katpoli).

If one of them is to beat him today, it’s likely to have to be quite special.

As a consequence, Fanfan du Seuil looks the one that Katpoli has to beat.

He was a comfortable winner of a minor event at Exeter last time, having fallen when beaten on his UK debut at Chepstow.

Quel Destin was runner up in that Chepstow race - and he subsequently won the Cheltenham race that Katpoli finished fourth in.
The collateral form line suggests there should be very little between Fanfan du Seuil and Katpoli.

The 3lb the former has to concede could therefore prove crucial - and that, coupled with the fact he is half the price of Katpoli, put me firmly in the latters camp.

The only other one worthy of a mention, is Nelson River.

He won his sole race over hurdles - so in theory, could be anything !

However, it would be unusual for his connections to win a race of this nature, at Cheltenham.

On balance, Katpoli is the sensible option…

12:45

Le Breuil sets the standard for this race, courtesy of his second to Count Meribel at the November meeting.

He ran really well that day - and looked likely to win, jumping the last - but Count Meribel was a bit too strong for him, on the run to the line.

That’s decent novice form - and he probably matched it a fortnight ago, when finishing third to Santini at Newbry.

Again, Le Breuil, jumped and travelled well - he just found a couple of rivals too strong for him at the business end of the race.

I guess they may happen again today - and if he is beaten, then OK Corral looks the one most likely to defeat him.

He’s making his chasing debut - but was a very high class hurdler.

A lot will depend on how he takes to the bigger obstacles - but if he’s good over his fences, he could have too many gears for Le Breuil, close home…

Of the others, then Jenkins is very closely matched with Le Breuil, on their run at the last Cheltenham meeting: whilst Drovers Lane is stepping up markedly in class and therefore has a bit to prove.

1:20

This is another race where it is hard to see any sort of an angle…

Bun Doran was a really impressive winner at the November meeting - but he’s been raised 10lb for that win, which will make things harder.

He still looks just about the most likely winner - but there is no value in a price of 2/1.

The trouble is, it’s hard to construct a solid case for anything against him.

The distance looks a bit short for Hell’s Kitchen: Top Gamble wants softer ground: Ozzie the Oscar and Yorkist are handicapped to the max; and Theinval showed little on his seasonal debut…

One of them will have to follow Bun Doran home (assuming he wins !) - and Ozzie the Oscar looks the most solid option.

However, I really don’t feel strongly about him - and 5/1 is no more than a fair price…

Time to move on !

1:55

This looks a potential minefield !

With the threat of significant rain - and a host of possible pace angles, it really could end up 15 horse lottery…

Certainly, there are at least half a dozen horses that I’ve considered tipping in the race - and when that happens, I know the best thing to do, is to leave it alone !

The issue, is the degree of uncertainty.

The race could be run on good ground - or it could be run on soft.

There could be a pace burn up - or one of the runners could get an easy lead.

Looking at it now, there are just too many unknowns, to justify getting involved…

In terms of those of interest, then War Sound and Baron Alco were top of my list - though both will need to defy significant rises in the handicap - and that’s never easy…

The same is true for Mr Medic - who also has to prove himself at Cheltenham.

Full Glass could be interesting - particularly if the rain arrives: whilst Casablanca Mix could be well handicapped (assuming she gets round).

Guitar Pete should run his race - and may well get placed: Whilst Cobra de Mai is quite interesting at a very big price, if things pan out for him…

I guess all I would say, is that I wouldn’t be interested in Rather Be at 4/1 - though that doesn’t mean he can’t win !

If you want to bet in the race, then I suggest you just get out your lucky pin and hope for the best - it really does strike me as that kind of contest…

2:30

I’m not particularly keen on either of the market leaders in this: Aye Aye Charlie or  Doux Pretender, which suggests there should be a bet in the race - but if there is, I can’t find it !

Supremely Lucky and Rockpoint are the obvious ones to focus on: but the former won a very poor race at Southwell, last time: Whilst the latter was beaten in a handicap at Newbury, off a mark of 118..

That form is about 20lb shy of the level that should be required to win a race of this nature which makes it hard to support either of them.

The trouble is, the other 4 runners in the race, look even more limited !
As a consequence, I end up gravitating back to the 2 market leaders - but as I said at the beginning, I’m not keen on either of them !
Obviously something has to win the race - but as with the previous one, it’s outcome is likely to be decided by the weather, race pace and tactics - something I can only guess on, at this point in time…

3:05

This is yet another race, which I can’t see an angle in to…

The problem with this one, Is that I can see a reason why all 8 runners won’t win - but one of them is going to buck that !

Favourite, Summerville Boy, would be hard to beat, if he bounced back to his form of last season - but he ran very poorly on his seasonal debut at Newcastle and will have to improve massively on that.

I was half tempted to tip Brain Power - on his return to hurdles.

On official ratings he is the best horse in the race - and in receipt of weight, should take a lot of beating.
My concern with him, is that he has never run well at Cheltenham - or on soft ground…

The other one I considered, is Western Ryder.
He has a lot to do on form - but the application of cheek pieces could bring about improvement.

If his connections were bullish, I would buy into him - but their enthusiasm seems limited - and so therefore, is mine !

The New One would win this easily - if he were the same horse as he was a couple of seasons back - but I fear he has become ‘The Old One’ - and I’m not sure a visor will make sufficient difference.

Silver Streak is the runner with least question marks over him - but he shouldn’t really be good enough to win a race of this stature…

Again, I think this will be decided by conditions and tactics - and I don’t want to guess on how they will pan out…

3:40

The presence of Ratoute Yutty, makes this a race that has to be avoided…

She has clearly been plotted up by the Skeltons to scoop this valuable pot - and may well do just that.

She got a very eye catching ride on her UK debut, at Ascot last time.

She was extremely slowly away that day - and was never put in the race with any chance of winning.
Despite that, she was only beaten 6 lengths - up against some very decent rivals.

The action had the desired result, however and she could easily have a stone in hand of her opening mark of 122.

That said, she’ll need to have a few pounds in hand, as both Definitelyanoscar and Petticoat Tails are likely to be a bit ahead of their mark: whilst Sunsualno is an improving mare, with a good attitude.

With the 4 named horses at the head of the market - and the most likely winner, the favourite, there really is no angle into the race…

Hereford

12:00

This certainly isn’t a ‘big’ race - but hopefully I’ve left tipping in it late enough for you all to get on, without too many issues…

As I said last Sunday, when I tipped in a class 4 contest at Huntingdon, I will do occasionally, if I think there is a good opportunity - and I think Sands Cove has a fair chance in this…

He was a very good horse a few seasons back - and if he could repeat his effort when third in a grade 2 event at Kempton, 3 years ago, he would hack up in this…

Presumably he suffered some kind of injury however, as he was off the track for 2 years, prior to reappearing at Kempton in the spring.

He showed little that day - or on his subsequent outing at Southwell, the following month.

He then didn’t run until he reappeared at Market Rasen, last month.

That was in a fair race for the grade - and whilst he ultimately finished well beaten,  I thought he shaped with distinct promise.

With that run under his belt, we should find out this afternoon, how much of the old ability remains.

He has dropped to a mark of 103 - which is almost 2 stone lower than he was rated at his peak.

Clearly if the old ability has all gone, then that will be irrelevant - but I think there is a chance that a chunk of it remains.

The other interesting thing with him, is that he is trained by James Evans.

He had gone almost 18 months without a winner, prior to Lord Getaways victory on Sunday.

He had another winner at Bangor yesterday - and is now on the Hot trainers list !
I wouldn’t read too much into that, but it’s probably fair to assume the stable has turned a corner - and I don’t think it would be the biggest surprise in the world if Sands Cover provided him with his third winner in a week.
Fingers Crossed !

Doncaster

2:10

The drift on Cliffs of Dover has persuaded me to get involved with him, in this race…

He was a very decent juvenile hurdler - and whilst he has only run twice over hurdles since his juvenile campaign, he ran numerous times on the flat, during the last year and showed himself as good as ever.

2 wins on the AW last March, were followed by another at Haydock in August and on the back of those runs, he went off 4/1 fav for a hot race at Haydock on his return to hurdling.

However, he is a very keen going sort - and the attempts to get him to settle tha tday, failed.

As a result, he ran no sort of a race - and finished well beaten.

The handicapper dropped him 4lb for the run and his new mark of 136, looks to under-estimate his ability (assuming he can be ridden in a way that enables him to give his best).

Tactics are likely to prove crucial in this contest - and we’ll be looking for Harry Cobden to give him a good ride.

He faces a potential pace opponent in Chieftains Choice, so we certainly need that early battle to work out in our favour !

If it does - and Cliffs of Dover consents to settle, then I think he will take a lot of beating.

Irish Roe and Equus Amadeus looks the 2 most dangerous rivals: But the former arrives on the back of a heavy fall - and in truth, hasn’t looked as good this season as she did last; whilst the latter has to prove himself up to this class.

In short, if things pan out as I hope, then I reckon Cliffs of Dover should be good enough to win this.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chel 12:10 Katpoli 1pt win 9/2

Here 12:00 Sands Cove 0.5pt win 16/1

Donc 2:10 Cliffs of Dover 1pt win 5/1

Mentions

Chel 12:45 Le Breuil (O )

Chel 1:20 Bun Doran (P )

Chel 1:55 War Sound (O )

Chel 3:05 Brain Power (C )

Chel 3:40 Ratoute Yutty (P )