Daily write-up - Dec 8th

There are 5 NH meetings today: at Sandown, Aintree, Chepstow and Wetherby in the UK - plus Navan in Ireland.

More than that, they are all decent meetings - and I would have been happy to spend a fair bit of time on any of them...

What was a bit trickier, was spending a fair bit of time on them all !

When my ‘short’ list of races to study, reached 20, I knew I was in danger of biting off more than I could chew!

I actually thought I’d found a few decent bets - but no sooner do I spot them, than the odds start to drop - and I have to begin looking elsewhere for bets.

It can be a time consuming (and frustrating !) process…

Anyway, I don’t suppose you are interested in my pains - just in what I finally managed to deliver !

I ended up focusing on 3 meetings: at Sandown, Aintree and Chepstow.

I did have potential bets at both Wetherby and Navan - but prices went, so I abandoned them (even from the preview).

In fairness the 3 meetings I have focused on are the main ones on the day - and there are 3 or 4 race at each, which could have yielded tips.

Ultimately, I’ve ended up with just 4.

Finding potential tips wasn’t hard - honing in on the right ones is the difficult part !

Before I get on to them, just a quick reminder about the Naps competition, which begins today in the forum.

It’s still not too late to join - you just need to log your interest - and post your first nap, before midday.

Whilst you are in the forum, you might also want to check out Craigs Colossus bets thread: and ofcourse, Chris’s system bets (which have been in good form this week).

You get so much more with TVB

Anyway, on to the rationale behind todays tips - along with my thoughts on a few of the other races at Sandown, Aintree and Chepstow…

Sandown

1:20

This looks an extremely weak race, which I can’t believe is going to take much winning…

Most of the runners, are better known as chasers and are presumably running in this, with a view to trying to qualify for the series final, at the Cheltenham festival.

Another Emotion sticks out like a sore thumb, in this field - and whilst he comes with some risks, he also has limitless potential (which is not something you can say for any of his rivals !).
In terms of the risks, then he is making his handicap debut today - and having only his third run over hurdles.

There’s a chance that lack of experience will catch him out - but it’s a relatively small field and the soft ground should see them going a sensible pace, so I’m optimistic he’ll get away with it.

If he does, then he’s going to take some beating, even based on what he’s done - never mind what he could do !

On his second run over hurdles, last season, he beat Luckofthedraw, by half a length, in receipt of 6lb. That one is now running over fences - but is rated 132.

That suggests Another Emotion is about a 128 rated horse - yet he runs today, from a mark of 120…

Furthermore, as that was only his second run over hurdles, he clearly has potential for massive improvement.

Fitness is a possible issue - in addition to inexperience - but if he’s ready to do himself justice and his jumping holds up, he could easily be far too well handicapped for his much more exposed rivals.

1:50

Dynamite Dollar was an eye catcher last time at Cheltenham - and I did consider tipping him in this…

In a way, that would seem silly, as he was beaten 7 lengths by Lalor at Cheltenham - and is no better off at the weights.

He also held a fitness advantage, so conventionally, he shouldn’t reverse the form.

And quite possibly, he won’t !

However, as we know, racing is not an exact science - and on much softer ground, over a completely different track, there may well be a different result…

Part of the issue is, that even if he does manage to finish in front of Lalor - there are 4 other tough opponents to beat !

I’m not a massive fan of Diakali - but there is no arguing with his record and I suspect Sandown will suit him well.

I wouldn’t be overly worried about Highway one o one - even though he’s a useful animal: but Pingshu could be dangerous, if back to his best.

It also seems interesting that Henry de Bromhead has brought Ornua over for the race - it could be dangerous to under-estimate him.

In summary, the race just seems a bit too tricky to get involved with.
I would expect Dynamite Dollar to run well - but whether he can win, is a different matter…

2:25

As I’m sure many of you will recall, Apples Shakira was our great hope, at last seasons Cheltenham festival - after all, it’s not often you tip a horse at 20/1 and it’s sent off at 6/5 !

However, she disappointed that day - and I feel she has to be taken on in this.

If she wins, then fair play to her: but top weight in an all age handicap, taking on geldings on her seasonal debut - it’s all a very big ask…

That said, this is another relatively weak race, so finding one to oppose her with, wasn’t that easy…

I ended up going with Friday Night Light - and depending on how you view it, he’s either got a very good chance - or not much of a chance !

Looking at the positives: he’s a young horse, who looked to going places, when he running Le Patriote to a length at Ascot, in February.

That one is now rated 17lb higher - and Friday Night Light looked to have almost as much potential.

However, he disappointed on his next 3 outings - and that has to be a concern.

In fairness, it was his first season in the UK - and he had been quite heavily campaigned, so maybe he’d just had enough…

He returns to the track today - and has had a wind op over the summer.

If he’s back in the same form as in February - I think he’ll take a bit of beating - but that’s not guaranteed !

It’s particularly not guaranteed, because David Pipes horses haven’t been running well - though he did get a winner at Sandown yesterday…

In short, Friday Night Light has a chance in a relatively weak race, against a favourite who looks vulnerable.

At a price of 12/1, I think he is worth a risk.

3:00

There may only be 4 runners in this - but it really is a potential crackerjack.

Instinctively, I want to take on Altior, at odds on - but I’ve resisted !

Despite having won all 14 of his races over obstacles, I do think he is beatable - and he faces 3 very strong rivals this afternoon.

The trouble is, I think things are likely to pan out in his favour.
Saint Calvados needs to lead - and with Un de Sceaux in the line up, that’s likely to mean he’ll  go a stride faster than ideal (because if he doesn’t Un de Sceaux will take him on).

The likely searching pace will be fine for Un De Sceaux - but may make him vulnerable late on.

In theory, that could be perfect for Sceau Royal - but he won’t appreciate the very soft ground.

Which leaves Altior…

He won’t mind the ground - and almost certainly needs a very strong pace, over 2 miles.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see him looking in trouble, jumping the pond fence - but equally, I won’t be surprised if he then switches on his turbo and powers past rivals who won’t have had the race run to suit them…

Ofcourse, it may not pan out like that - and there is a chance that Un de Sceaux could get too big a break on him.

However, I’m not prepared to bet on that - I’d rather just watch a race which could turn out to be an absolute classic.

3:35

Again, this doesn’t look a particularly strong event - and Royal Vacation and Red Infantry, are the right market leaders, on the back of recent good runs…

Red Infantry was a convincing winner at Haydock and a 5lb rise doesn’t look overly harsh; whilst Royal Vacation was an excellent second to Rock the Kasbah in a better race at Cheltenham, with a 3lb weight rise, looking very fair.

However, I would be a little concerned about Red Infantrys jumping; whilst Royal Vacation has had injury problems; so neither one is rock solid…

The trouble is, beyond those 2, you have to get quite creative, if you are going to build a case for something…

I could give Actinpieces half a chance - if she handles the ground. However, I suspect it might be a problem for her.

I wouldn’t want to side with anything else in the race, though - so it has to be one to watch…

Aintree

1:00

Midnight Shadow was an eye catcher on his seasonal debut at Wetherby - before disappointing on his most recent outing, in the Greatwood hurdle at Cheltenham.

In fairness, that was a very hot handicap - much stronger than todays - but I still expected him to run better than he did.

He’s stepped up in trip by half a mile today - and the ground will be much softer.

I don’t think todays conditions will be an issue for him - though I’m not sure he will necessarily improve for them, either…

Looking at his opponents, then I think he could be too classy for most of them - but there are 2 or 3 definite dangers…

Mahlervous is the most obvious - in receipt of 19lb.

He ran really well to finish second to a handicap good thing at Cheltenham last time - and with Sean Bowen in the saddle, could be very hard to beat…

The problem is, at 9/2 the pair - and with it impossible to dismiss Faithful Mount, Notwhatiam and Dubai Angel, I’m struggling to see an angle into the race…

1:30

There’s a tremendous field going to post for this - and over the big fences, it really should be like a mini Grand National (which I’m guessing is the aim !).

Last years winner, Blaklion, is the obvious one to beat - and if he turns up in the same form as 12 months ago, he will go very close.

If I’d acted quicker, I might have put us on Crosshue Boy - but the early 20/1, was 10/1 by this morning and there is no margin in that…

Instead, I’d rather take a chance on Walk in the Mill.

He’s no previous experience over the Aintree fences - and there is a question mark over his ability to handle heavy ground.

However, he is potentially very well handicapped - still improving - and should be primed to run a big race.

He is also trained by Rob Walford - and his horses are in excellent form at the moment (he trains Our Merlin).

Walk in the Mills’ stand out run last season, was when he finished third at Ascot.

He was beaten by Gold Present and Frodon, that day - but had a host of talented horses behind him.

His only other run last season, was when pulled up in the mud at Haydock.

That run suggests he may have an issue with todays ground - but he didn’t run again for the remainder of the season, so there may have been more to it, than that…

He returned to the fray at Cheltenham last month, and ran a respectable race to finish third to The Young Master.

He’s been dropped 2lb for that run - and I suspect it will have put him right for today…

Clearly you can never be confident in a race like this.

However, I do think that Walk on the Mill has a chance - and that chance is better than the market thinks.

As a consequence, he has to be a tip - even if only a small one !

2:05

With conditions ideal and the opposition severely limited, Definitly Red should hack up in this - and odds of 1/2 look perfectly fair.

Not a bad way to earn £60K…

2:40

Unfortunately, Lady Camelot was very well backed in this, yesterday evening - which is a shame, as I think she’s got a decent chance…

She’s trained by Gavin Cromwell - who clearly targets the race - and whilst her hurdling form suggests she’s not up to much, I suspect that’s not the case.

Certainly she was pretty useful on the flat - and has hinted at enough promise in her 2 hurdle outings, to make me think she’s capable of big improvement.

She should handle todays conditions better than most of her rivals - and I would have taken a risk on her at the 8/1 available yesterday, however the 6/1 available now, is right on the cusp.

Maybe she will drift back out a little, as the off approaches…

3:15

This is a very tight race - with the top 6 in the betting, barely separated by a point.

To an extent, you pay your money and take your chance - and I’ve paid my money and am taking a chance on Captain Redbeard !

I actually tipped him in the corresponding race last season - and whilst he only finished fifth, I think he was a bit unlucky…

He got badly hampered at the fourth last - and that effectively cost him his chance.

On the plus side, he jumped round fine - and that should stand him in good stead for this afternoon.

Captain Redbeard has been very consistent since then - though that probably means he’s not got a lot in hand of his handicap mark.

That said, he is certainly handicapped to beat Catamaran du Seuil, who he beat at Haydock last season, yet meets on better terms this afternoon.

Of the other fancied runners, then I suspect the ground has gone against Warriors Tale: whilst Forest des Aigles is likely to struggle with the step up in class and I’ve never been completely convinced about Crievehill !

Kilcrea Vale and Shanahans Turn are harder to rule out - particularly as both were placed over the big fences, in last seasons Topham.

I’d expect them to run well - but hope Captain Redbeard can run just a little bit better !

Chepstow

12:20

There are a couple of eye catchers running in this, in the shape of Oxwich Bay and Atirelrigo - and I think both have got a decent chance.

Unfortunately, there are 2 or 3 others in the race which I think have also got a chance - and the odds on Oxwich Bay and Atirelarigo mean there is no value in backing either of them…

Of the 2, I would slightly favour Oxwich Bay, as I think he’s the more likely to run his race - but he’s 9/2 fav.

Atirelarigo is now a 6/1 shot - and that’s on the verge of making him interesting - though he does come with risks (namely his jumping - and the fact he could ‘bounce’).

If I felt the race was between the 2 of them, I would get involved - but I can see a few other potential dangers.

Top of the list, is Bennys King, on his debut for Dan Skeleton; though at a bigger price, Llancillo Lord, also catches my eye…

Pop Rockstar, Sandhurst Lad and Baallandendall can’t be safely dismissed, either.

On balance, it has to be a watching race…

2:30 

There is definitely a chance that Ramses de Teille has been backed in too short in this - particularly bearing in mind the form of David Pipes stable…

Everyone will pick up on his Chepstow form in the mud - and the fact he could still be well handicapped.

In fairness, I would agree that he’s got a good chance - but to my mind, he’s more of a 7/2 shot than a 2/1 shot…

I actually would have been prepared to take him on - but the one I like most against him is Back to the Thatch at 11/2 is tight enough on him.

Ballycross is probably the value in the race, at 10/1 - and he could be worth considering EW.
Whilst Another Venture could be a danger to them all, if he’s fit enough to do himself justice on his seasonal debut.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Sand 1:20 Another Emotion 1pt win 4/1

Sand 2:25 Friday Night Light 0.75pt win 12/1

Aint 1:30 Walk in the Mill 0.5pt win 20/1

Aint 3:15 Captain Redbeard 1pt win 6/1

Mentions

Sand 1:50 Dynamite Dollar (O )

Sand 3:35 Actinpieces (C )

Aint 1:00 Mahlervous (O )

Aint 2:40 Lady Camelot (S )

Chep 12:20 Oxwich Bay (O )

Chep 2:30 Back to the Thatch (O )