Daily write-up - Dec 2nd

There are 3 NH meetings today, at Leicester and Carlisle in the UK - plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

Leicester put on one of the worst weekend cards, I’ve ever seen !

They have a policy of not artificially watering the course - but it’s back-fired on them, as the chase course is currently too firm to race on.

As a result they have a 6 race hurdle card - however one of the races is a seller - and another, a walk-over !

The remaining 4 don’t have much to recommend them either - and whilst there is an official eye catcher running, in the shape of Trans Express, it’s forecast to go off at 6/4, and I can’t summon up the enthusiasm to check whether it’s likely to win !

Safe to say, my attention this afternoon will be elsewhere...

In theory, it could be at Carlisle.

They serve up a 7 race card, consisting of 5 class 2 races - and a listed chase.

It sounds as if it should be great stuff - but the reality is, that it’s Northern Lights series final day - and the horses competing in the class 2 races aren’t really class 2 horses !

Across the 5 finals, there are only a handful of horse rated above 120.

So it’s really just a bunch of class 4 horses, running in class 2 races !

As a consequence, all of my attention has been focused on Fairyhouse.

They have put on a card of genuine quality: with 3 grade 1 events, complemented by a couple of strong handicaps.

I’ve managed to find a couple of tips there as well - which is nice !

Here’s the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on the other races on the card…

Fairyhouse

12:35

I’m quite keen on Lever du Soleil in this…

A relatively moderate horse on the flat in the UK, he didn’t look to have improved massively for the switch to Ireland and hurdles, when he contested 3 summer jumps races.

However, following a short break, he returned at Punchestown in November - and different tactics were employed.

Racing from the front, he was soon well clear - and looked almost certain to win, when he took a crashing fall at the second last.

It would have been reasonable to expect that to have have dented his confidence - but he was out again, just a week later and made no mistake in taking a similar race at Gowran.

He still led that day - but was ridden with more restraint, which enabled him to finish his race more strongly…

In short, I think connections are still learning about him - and he seems to be improving.

Not that on the figures, he need to improve to win today - he just needs his rivals not to improve !

In fairness, that’s unlikely, as most of them are less exposed over hurdles, than he is.

However, hurdling experience for juveniles is often an asset - even tho it tends to be interpreted negatively, by the betting.

Coeur Sublime looks Lever de Soleil’s biggest rival - but that is based on just one run over hurdles.

Second favourite, Humaniste, is equally inexperienced…

They both may be able to improve past Lever de Soleil - but then again…

I’m hoping that Ger Fox will look to control the race from the front - and that Leve De Soleils experience will prove decisive, when the tempo increases in the final half mile.

That’s the theory, anyway !

1:05

The first of 3 Grade 1 races on the card - and Commander of Fleet looks a suspect favourite to me…

He won the prestigious Land Rover bumper at the Punchestown festival, on his rules debut last season and as a consequence, has a massive reputation.

He’s only run once over hurdles - when winning, again at Punchestown, last month.
He did it well enough - but that was against limited opposition, over 2m4f. He drops back half a mile in trip today, and takes on some serious rivals…

Aramon, Quick Grabem and Triplicate have taken on each other a few times already - and you can make a case for any of the 3 to come out on top, this afternoon.

Triplicate beat Amaron at Listowel in September; but was then beaten by Quick Grabem at Tipperary in October.

However, Quick Grabem was put in his place by Amaron when the 2 clashed at Navan, last month…

In short, you pay your money and make your choice !
Needless to say, with respective prices of 13/8 Quick Grabem, 5/1 Amaron and 9/1 Triplicate, there were never going to be any prizes for guessing which one I would side with !

That said, I would genuinely fancy Triplicate to win - if the ground was a bit softer.

Not only would soft ground suit him, but it would blunt the speed of Quick Grabem.

My fear on good ground, is that Quick Grabems turn of foot, will prove decisive…

That said, I still figured that Triplicate was worth a small risk.
They’ve had 8mm of rain overnight at Fairyhouse - and, as we know, there is always an element of lottery about these races.

A tactical blunder; a poor jump or a bit of misfortune, can all make a big difference when margins are so tight.

At 10/1 Triplicate is worth a small risk, to try and get us - and Joseph O’Brien - some compensation for Choungayas narrow defeat, last Sunday…

1:35 

The second grade 1 race of the afternoon - and again the market baffles me…

I really don’t get what Le Richebourg has done, to warrant him being installed 5/2 fav.

He was a fair sort over hurdles - but not as good as a few of todays rivals; and whilst he has won his 2 chases, he’ll find todays race a completely different challenge.

In fairness, he does have a marked preference for decent ground (unlike most of his rivals) - and he is likely to get that this afternoon - but all the same…

The other market leader, is Delta Work - and whilst I get that much more based on form, he’s really a stayer...

The worry with him has to be that 2m4f on good ground ,won’t be enough of a stamina test.

With the top 2 in the market eliminated (!), there has to be value elsewhere…

The first one I want on side, is Jetz.

He wasn’t the best of these over hurdles - but he wasn’t too far off, either...
He’s run twice over fences: falling at the third last, when still in with a chance, at Navan – and then winning over the same course, just a week ago…

Both of those runs were over 2 miles - and I think he will improve for the step up in trip today (his best hurdles form was over 2m4f).
It also strikes me as interesting that Jessie Harrington is prepared to let him run again, just a week after he was last out.

Simply, he’s got a chance - and odds of 12/1 under-estimate that chance…

Discorama is the other one of major interest.

He’s got a bit to make up with Blow by Blow, based on hurdles form - but I suspect he’s going to be a better chaser.

He won a decent race on his chasing debut at Naas - and he looks the type who will keep on improving.

As with Jetz, today's test looks ideal for him - and he too looks over-priced at 9/1…

Certainly, I prefer the chances of Jetz and Discorama, to those of similarly priced Blow by Blow, Cadmium and Minds Eye, so it was relatively easy to work out the tips…

One worth mentioning at a very big price is Rashaan.

I don’t think he’ll be good enough to win - but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run well.

At 33/1, he may be worth a tiny play, just in case…

2:10

I suspect that Undressed is the one to beat in this, on his stable debut for Willie Mullins…

He’s a strange horse for Mullins to take responsibility for: as he’s a thoroughly exposed 10 year old.

He’s actually a horse who I’ve always liked (I may even have tipped him, once !) - but he has his limitations and without the stable switch I wouldn’t have been interested in him, this afternoon.

However, as we all know, stable switching can bring about huge improvement - particularly if the stable you switch in to, is that of the Champion trainer !

Certainly I don’t think Undressed will have any issues with todays test: and even on his form as recent as March, when he was beaten by Sumos Novios, he’s not badly handicapped.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Willie has improved him by a stone - and if he has, he’ll win this…

Ofcourse, the market is wise to everything I’ve just written - so there is no value in his current price of 7/2 (bearing in mind it’s all supposition).

That said, I wouldn't be prepared to take him on, which makes this a no bet race…

Of the others, then I’m sure todays extended trip will suit Out Sam far better than the bare 3 miles of last weeks Troytown.

Conversely, I think it will be a bit too far for Velocity Boy - though again, he’s likely to come there swinging (and if there has been no pace in the race, there is a possibility he might even get home !).

The support for Fitzhenry is interesting - considering connections - but he’s not one I would particularly fancy.

For me, it would be Undressed or nothing - and with the guesswork required, then at the prices, it has to be nothing…

2:40

As you all know, I’m a massive fan of Apples Jade - and I won’t be at all surprised if she wins this…

She was a little disappointing at the back end of last season - but seemed right back to her best, when winning on her seasonal debut at Navan last month.

She’s likely to have come on for the run, as well - so taking her on this afternoon, may seem a foolish thing to do…

However, I simply have to back (and tip !) Limini against her…

The 2 horses met twice, in the spring of 2017.

On the first occasion, Limini surprisingly beat Apples Jade: and whilst the form was reversed at Cheltenham the following month, there was clearly very little between the pair...

Limini hasn’t run over hurdles since that defeat.

She was off the track for over a year, until she reappeared in a flat race, at this years Galway festival.

She looked in rude health that day - but ultimately paid for being too keen and was beaten by her stable mate Uradel.

She’s had 4 more runs on the flat since then: winning one - but running disappointingly on the last 2…

To be honest, I’m not that bothered about how she’s been running on the flat (within reason !) - the important thing is that she’s been running - so will arrive today, race-fit.

That being the case, then I expect it to again be very close between her and Apples Jade…

Ofcourse this isn’t just a 2 horse race.

Supasundea would be more than capable of giving both mares a race - if he were fully tuned up.

However, he makes his seasonal debut today and I suspect he will come on for the run…

The same is true of Sutton Place - and he would also prefer softer ground.

Both should be watched with a view to the future…

There are some other fair sorts running in the race, but it will be a bit of a surprise if any of them are able to get the better of Apples Jade.

I reckon Limini might though - and at 7/1 it’s certainly worth a risk…

3:10

This looks an absolute minefield !

Wonder Laish has been installed favourite on the back of one of the easiest wins you’ll see all season.

He was sent off odds on, in a 13 runner handicap that day - and absolutely hacked up.

He’s been given a 17lb rise for his troubles - but whether that will be enough, is anyones guess…

Wonder Laish is trained by Charles Byrnes - and it doesn’t help things that he is also responsible for second favourite, Off You Go.

He also won his most recent race - and got a big weight rise for it.
Again, you can only guess whether the handicapper has now caught up with him…

The 2 of them dominate the market - and as they come from a stable which tends to be very shrewd with its money, I would expect the late market to advise on which one is most fancied (though that may not be the case !).

Third favourite is Stratum - and he is owned by big punter, Tony Bloom: Whilst the fourth favourite, is trained by Tony Martin (another man, who the bookies fear !).

Ofcourse, I may be hinting at skull duggery which won’t actually materialise - but on a day like today, with lots of more straightforward races to assess, I’m disinclined to try and second guess…

With a much straighter bat, I could see Jezki running well - and also Brelade - though I’d be less sure that either would win.

I’ll also be very interested to see how The Holy One performs.

I tipped him last time and he was backed into favouritism, but disappointed.
This is a much stronger race, so he shouldn’t really feature - but I wouldn't be overly surprised if he did…

All in all, a watching race !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB

Tips

Fair 12:35 Lever du Soleil 1pt win 7/1

Fair 1:05 Triplicate 0.5pt win 10/1

Fair 1:35 Jetz 0.5pt win 12/1

Fair 1:35 Discorama 0.5pt win 9/1

Fair 2:40 Limini 1pt win 7/1

Mentions

Fair 2:10 Undressed (S )